Football · Peru Liga 1 · 13/09, 03:00

Prediction: Alianza Lima vs Universitario de Deportes

Team pages: Alianza Lima · Universitario de Deportes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Alianza Lima1.43

Universitario de Deportes0.94

1X2

47% 29% 24%

Alianza Lima Draw Universitario de Deportes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Lima 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDWDL

Universitario de Deportes 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLDWWWD

Head-to-head

Alianza Lima 0–2–4 Universitario de Deportes (6 last)

Universitario de Deportes1-0Alianza Lima
Universitario de Deportes0-0Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima1-1Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes2-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima0-1Universitario de Deportes
Alianza Lima0-2Universitario de Deportes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1507 · Universitario de Deportes 1563

	Alianza Lima	Draw	Universitario de Deportes
Our model	47%	29%	23%
Market	48%	29%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (rating 1507 vs 1563).
H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Lima	Universitario de Deportes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.99
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.47 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +1’	1.95	3.25	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +12’	1.99	2.84	4.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 0–2–4 Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	1-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
25/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
06/04/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	1-1 HT 1-0	Universitario de Deportes
27/07/24 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	2-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
11/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	0-1 HT 0-1	Universitario de Deportes
09/11/23 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	0-2 HT 0-1	Universitario de Deportes

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	24	15	7	2	40	15	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	25	13	7	5	41	26	46
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	24	12	6	6	31	21	42
4	Cusco FC	25	13	3	9	38	36	42
5	CD Los Chankas	24	12	5	7	34	37	41
6	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
7	FBC Melgar	24	11	6	7	40	28	39
8	Alianza Atletico	25	10	7	8	37	31	37
9	Sport Boys	25	9	7	9	27	25	34
10	Comerciantes Unidos	25	7	9	9	34	35	30
11	Sporting Cristal	24	8	5	11	38	38	29
12	Atletico Grau	24	8	5	11	20	23	29
13	Sport Huancayo	25	8	5	12	33	42	29
14	Juan Pablo II College	24	7	6	11	35	50	27
15	Deportivo Moquegua	25	6	7	12	23	35	25
16	FC Cajamarca	25	6	6	13	38	49	24
17	AD Tarma	24	5	7	12	27	36	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	25	4	8	13	29	45	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Lima	Universitario de Deportes
UTC Cajamarca	1-0 W	4-2 W
Comerciantes Unidos	2-2 D	2-2 D
Sport Huancayo	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Cajamarca	1-1 D	3-2 W
CD Los Chankas	3-0 W	3-0 W
Cienciano	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Universitario de Deportes (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Lima

WWDWDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
23/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
09/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
26/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
20/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
31/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
24/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
17/05	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
29/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
24/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
08/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
03/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
25/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
31/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	12	3	W
23/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs Universitario de Deportes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (47%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 47%, draw 29%, Universitario de Deportes 24%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs Universitario de Deportes?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Alianza Lima 1.43 · Universitario de Deportes 0.94), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Universitario de Deportes?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.