Football · Peru Liga 1 · 12/09, 02:00

Prediction: Cusco FC vs FBC Melgar

Team pages: Cusco FC · FBC Melgar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Cusco FC1.68

FBC Melgar1.37

1X2

43% 27% 30%

Cusco FC Draw FBC Melgar

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cusco FC 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWLWW

FBC Melgar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDLWDL

Head-to-head

Cusco FC 3–1–2 FBC Melgar (6 last)

FBC Melgar1-3Cusco FC
FBC Melgar0-2Cusco FC
Cusco FC0-1FBC Melgar
Cusco FC0-3FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar2-3Cusco FC
Cusco FC1-1FBC Melgar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cusco FC 1537 · FBC Melgar 1513

	Cusco FC	Draw	FBC Melgar
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cusco FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cusco FC	FBC Melgar
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:56 +2’	2.15	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cusco FC 3–1–2 FBC Melgar

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-3 HT 1-2	Cusco FC
27/07/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	0-2 HT 0-1	Cusco FC
14/02/25 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	0-1 HT 0-1	FBC Melgar
14/07/24 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	0-3 HT 0-2	FBC Melgar
27/01/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	2-3 HT 1-2	Cusco FC
19/08/23 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	1-1 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	24	15	7	2	40	15	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	25	13	7	5	41	26	46
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	24	12	6	6	31	21	42
4	Cusco FC	25	13	3	9	38	36	42
5	CD Los Chankas	24	12	5	7	34	37	41
6	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
7	FBC Melgar	24	11	6	7	40	28	39
8	Alianza Atletico	25	10	7	8	37	31	37
9	Sport Boys	25	9	7	9	27	25	34
10	Comerciantes Unidos	25	7	9	9	34	35	30
11	Sporting Cristal	24	8	5	11	38	38	29
12	Atletico Grau	24	8	5	11	20	23	29
13	Sport Huancayo	25	8	5	12	33	42	29
14	Juan Pablo II College	24	7	6	11	35	50	27
15	Deportivo Moquegua	25	6	7	12	23	35	25
16	FC Cajamarca	25	6	6	13	38	49	24
17	AD Tarma	24	5	7	12	27	36	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	25	4	8	13	29	45	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cusco FC	FBC Melgar
Deportivo Moquegua	2-0 W	0-0 D
Cienciano	2-1 W	3-1 W
Juan Pablo II College	2-0 W	1-1 D
Alianza Atletico	4-1 W	3-1 W
Atletico Grau	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cusco FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cusco FC

WWWLWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	8	5	L
15/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
07/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	5	L
02/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	1	5	W
25/07	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
19/07	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	8	2	W
30/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	0	5	W
24/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	7	W

FBC Melgar

WDWWWDLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
09/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	10	8	L
02/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
26/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
18/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
31/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
22/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
16/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cusco FC vs FBC Melgar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cusco FC win (43%). Probabilities: Cusco FC 43%, draw 27%, FBC Melgar 30%.

How many goals are expected in Cusco FC vs FBC Melgar?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Cusco FC 1.68 · FBC Melgar 1.37), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cusco FC vs FBC Melgar?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.