Football · Peru Liga 1 · 13/09, 20:00
Prediction: Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Team pages: Sport Boys · Deportivo Garcilaso
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
Sport Boys1.48
Deportivo Garcilaso0.78
1X2
Sport Boys
Draw
Deportivo Garcilaso
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sport Boys
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Garcilaso
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sport Boys
1–5
Deportivo Garcilaso
(6 last)
- Deportivo Garcilaso3-2Sport Boys
- Sport Boys0-1Deportivo Garcilaso
- Deportivo Garcilaso4-0Sport Boys
- Deportivo Garcilaso2-0Sport Boys
- Sport Boys2-0Deportivo Garcilaso
- Deportivo Garcilaso3-0Sport Boys
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sport Boys 1536 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1595
| Sport Boys | Draw | Deportivo Garcilaso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 29% | 19% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Garcilaso (rating 1536 vs 1595).
- H2H favours Deportivo Garcilaso: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sport Boys | Deportivo Garcilaso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.3 | 2.4 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.7 | 3.9 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Boys 1–0–5 Deportivo Garcilaso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Sport Boys |
| 16/08/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Boys | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Garcilaso |
| 30/03/25 Peru Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Sport Boys |
| 27/07/24 Peru Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Sport Boys |
| 11/02/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Boys | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso |
| 17/08/23 Peru Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Sport Boys |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 25 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 41 | 16 | 53 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 41 | 26 | 46 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 23 | 45 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 43 | 28 | 42 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 36 | 42 |
| 6 | CD Los Chankas | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 42 | 41 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 37 | 40 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 37 | 31 | 37 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 25 | 34 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 38 | 32 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 34 | 35 | 30 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 27 | 29 |
| 13 | Sport Huancayo | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 42 | 29 |
| 14 | Juan Pablo II College | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 36 | 51 | 28 |
| 15 | Deportivo Moquegua | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 25 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 38 | 49 | 24 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 39 | 22 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 25 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 29 | 45 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sport Boys | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Cienciano | 5-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Deportivo Moquegua | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Alianza Lima | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Atletico Grau | 1-0 W | 4-2 W |
| AD Tarma | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sport Boys (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sport Boys
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 30/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
3-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 9 | D |
| 09/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 19/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
Deportivo Garcilaso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-2 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 09/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/07 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/07 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Boys win (53%). Probabilities: Sport Boys 53%, draw 28%, Deportivo Garcilaso 19%.
How many goals are expected in Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model expects 2.27 goals (Sport Boys 1.48 · Deportivo Garcilaso 0.78), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.