Football · Peru Liga 1 · 18/09, 22:00

Prediction: Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos

Team pages: Alianza Atletico · Comerciantes Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Alianza Atletico1.67

Comerciantes Unidos1.03

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Alianza Atletico Draw Comerciantes Unidos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Atletico 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWDWWW

Comerciantes Unidos 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLWLDL

Head-to-head

Alianza Atletico 2–1–3 Comerciantes Unidos (6 last)

Comerciantes Unidos1-0Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos1-0Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico3-0Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Atletico1-0Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos0-0Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico1-2Comerciantes Unidos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Atletico 1525 · Comerciantes Unidos 1473

	Alianza Atletico	Draw	Comerciantes Unidos
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	51%	27%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1525 vs 1473).
H2H favours Comerciantes Unidos: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Atletico	Comerciantes Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	0.9 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:57 +1’	1.80	3.40	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Atletico 2–1–3 Comerciantes Unidos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	1-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Atletico
18/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	1-0 HT 1-0	Alianza Atletico
12/06/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	3-0 HT 2-0	Comerciantes Unidos
23/09/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	1-0 HT 1-0	Comerciantes Unidos
23/04/24 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Atletico
11/12/20 Peru Liga 2	Alianza Atletico	1-2 HT 0-0	Comerciantes Unidos

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	26	15	8	3	42	18	53
2	Universitario de Deportes	26	14	7	5	43	27	49
3	FBC Melgar	26	13	6	7	44	28	45
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	25	13	6	6	35	23	45
5	Cusco FC	26	13	3	10	38	37	42
6	CD Los Chankas	26	12	5	9	35	44	41
7	Cienciano	25	12	4	9	44	37	40
8	Alianza Atletico	25	10	7	8	37	31	37
9	Sport Boys	25	9	7	9	27	25	34
10	Sporting Cristal	25	9	5	11	43	38	32
11	Sport Huancayo	26	9	5	12	34	42	32
12	Juan Pablo II College	26	8	7	11	38	52	31
13	Comerciantes Unidos	26	7	9	10	34	36	30
14	Atletico Grau	25	8	5	12	22	27	29
15	FC Cajamarca	26	7	6	13	40	50	27
16	Deportivo Moquegua	25	6	7	12	23	35	25
17	AD Tarma	25	5	7	13	27	39	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	26	4	8	14	30	47	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Atletico	Comerciantes Unidos
UTC Cajamarca	3-2 W	3-1 W
Deportivo Moquegua	4-1 W	2-2 D
Alianza Lima	1-3 L	2-2 D
CD Los Chankas	3-1 W	2-3 L
Cusco FC	1-4 L	3-1 W
FC Cajamarca	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Atletico

DLLWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	5	6	W
30/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
21/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
02/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
24/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
19/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
31/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	4	L
24/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

Comerciantes Unidos

LDDLWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
06/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
28/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
22/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
14/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
07/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	1	5	W
31/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-3	7	6	L
26/07	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
18/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-2	3	5	D
31/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Atletico win (51%). Probabilities: Alianza Atletico 51%, draw 27%, Comerciantes Unidos 22%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Alianza Atletico 1.67 · Comerciantes Unidos 1.03), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.