Football · Peru Liga 1 · 11/10, 20:00

Prediction: UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal

Team pages: UTC Cajamarca · Sporting Cristal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

UTC Cajamarca1.24

Sporting Cristal1.79

1X2

25% 26% 49%

UTC Cajamarca Draw Sporting Cristal

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

UTC Cajamarca 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLLLLL

Sporting Cristal 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLLWWW

Head-to-head

UTC Cajamarca 1–2–3 Sporting Cristal (6 last)

Sporting Cristal3-2UTC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal2-2UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca4-1Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal4-0UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca1-2Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal1-1UTC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UTC Cajamarca 1409 · Sporting Cristal 1577

	UTC Cajamarca	Draw	Sporting Cristal
Our model	25%	25%	49%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Cristal (rating 1409 vs 1577).
H2H favours Sporting Cristal: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UTC Cajamarca	Sporting Cristal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	3.5 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.7	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.60

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 20:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.92 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:56 +11’	4.00	3.60	1.80
07:33 +1’	3.70▼	3.50▼	1.90▲
20:18 +5’	3.70	3.60▲	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +285’	3.54	3.61	1.93
15:19 +199’	3.59▲	3.61	1.91▼
03:17 +56’	3.61▲	3.57▼	1.92▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UTC Cajamarca 1–2–3 Sporting Cristal

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	3-2 HT 1-0	UTC Cajamarca
23/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	2-2 HT 0-1	UTC Cajamarca
06/04/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	4-1 HT 3-1	Sporting Cristal
25/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	4-0 HT 1-0	UTC Cajamarca
31/03/24 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-2 HT 0-2	Sporting Cristal
26/09/23 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	1-1 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	44	18	56
2	Universitario de Deportes	28	14	8	6	45	33	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	14	6	8	39	25	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	13	8	7	47	31	47
5	Cusco FC	27	14	3	10	40	38	45
6	Cienciano	28	13	5	10	48	40	44
7	CD Los Chankas	28	12	7	9	36	45	43
8	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	40	35	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	11	5	11	48	40	38
10	Sport Huancayo	28	11	5	12	38	44	38
11	Juan Pablo II College	28	9	8	11	43	53	35
12	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	29	26	34
13	Atletico Grau	28	9	6	13	26	31	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	7	10	11	36	39	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	7	7	14	41	52	26
16	AD Tarma	28	6	8	14	29	42	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	28	6	7	15	24	43	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	4	8	15	32	50	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UTC Cajamarca	Sporting Cristal
Sport Huancayo	2-3 L	4-1 W
Juan Pablo II College	1-2 L	2-0 W
Alianza Atletico	2-3 L	1-3 L
Universitario de Deportes	2-4 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Moquegua	0-0 D	2-1 W
Atletico Grau	1-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Cristal (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UTC Cajamarca

LDLDLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	1	6	L
11/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	3	11	L
04/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	2	6	L
29/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-4	3	6	L
22/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
16/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
08/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
26/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	4	2	L

Sporting Cristal

WLWDWLLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-1	9	6	W
13/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
06/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-0	9	4	W
30/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
21/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
16/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	11	4	W
08/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
02/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
26/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
17/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	10	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting Cristal win (49%). Probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 25%, draw 26%, Sporting Cristal 49%.

How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

The model expects 3.03 goals (UTC Cajamarca 1.24 · Sporting Cristal 1.79), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.