Football · Peru Liga 1 · 10/10, 22:30

Prediction: Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College

Team pages: Comerciantes Unidos · Juan Pablo II College

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Comerciantes Unidos1.72

Juan Pablo II College1.1

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Comerciantes Unidos Draw Juan Pablo II College

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Comerciantes Unidos 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWLDLL

Juan Pablo II College 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Comerciantes Unidos 2–2–0 Juan Pablo II College (4 last)

Comerciantes Unidos0-0Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College2-2Comerciantes Unidos
Juan Pablo II College0-1Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos3-0Juan Pablo II College

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Comerciantes Unidos 1478 · Juan Pablo II College 1527

	Comerciantes Unidos	Draw	Juan Pablo II College
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo II College (rating 1478 vs 1527).
H2H favours Comerciantes Unidos: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Comerciantes Unidos	Juan Pablo II College
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.57 ★
2	3.40 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +5’	2.10	3.30	3.40
16:16 +12’	1.85▼	3.50▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +185’	1.84	3.57	3.94

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Comerciantes Unidos 2–2–0 Juan Pablo II College

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Comerciantes Unidos	0-0 HT 0-0	Juan Pablo II College
18/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	2-2 HT 2-1	Comerciantes Unidos
24/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	0-1 HT 0-1	Comerciantes Unidos
22/06/25 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	3-0 HT 3-0	Juan Pablo II College

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	44	18	56
2	Universitario de Deportes	27	14	7	6	43	31	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	14	6	7	39	24	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	13	7	7	45	29	46
5	Cusco FC	27	14	3	10	40	38	45
6	CD Los Chankas	27	12	6	9	36	45	42
7	Cienciano	27	12	5	10	46	40	41
8	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	40	35	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	11	5	11	48	40	38
10	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	29	26	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	10	5	12	37	44	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	9	7	11	42	52	34
13	Atletico Grau	27	9	5	13	26	31	32
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	7	9	11	35	38	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	7	6	14	41	52	27
16	AD Tarma	27	6	7	14	29	42	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	27	6	7	14	24	41	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	4	8	15	32	50	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Comerciantes Unidos	Juan Pablo II College
FC Cajamarca	2-3 L	2-2 D
UTC Cajamarca	3-1 W	2-1 W
Atletico Grau	0-1 L	0-0 D
Cusco FC	3-1 W	0-2 L
CD Los Chankas	2-3 L	4-3 W
Alianza Lima	2-2 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Moquegua	2-2 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Juan Pablo II College (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Comerciantes Unidos

DDLWLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
12/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
06/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
28/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
22/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
14/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
07/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	1	4	W
31/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-3	7	5	L
26/07	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
18/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-2	3	5	D

Juan Pablo II College

DWLDLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
11/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	11	W
06/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
29/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	3-2	4-3	2	5	W
22/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
15/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
08/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
02/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
25/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
17/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Comerciantes Unidos win (51%). Probabilities: Comerciantes Unidos 51%, draw 26%, Juan Pablo II College 23%.

How many goals are expected in Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Comerciantes Unidos 1.72 · Juan Pablo II College 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.