Football · Peru Liga 1 · 12/10, 01:30
Prediction: Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima
Team pages: Cusco FC · Alianza Lima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Cusco FC1.55
Alianza Lima1.29
1X2
Cusco FC
Draw
Alianza Lima
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Cusco FC
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Alianza Lima
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cusco FC
3–1–2
Alianza Lima
(6 last)
- Alianza Lima8-0Cusco FC
- Cusco FC2-0Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima3-0Cusco FC
- Alianza Lima1-2Cusco FC
- Cusco FC3-0Alianza Lima
- Cusco FC1-1Alianza Lima
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cusco FC 1514 · Alianza Lima 1513
| Cusco FC | Draw | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cusco FC: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cusco FC | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5 | 4.4 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cusco FC 3–1–2 Alianza Lima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 8-0 HT 4-0 | Cusco FC |
| 20/07/25 Peru Liga 1 | Cusco FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 09/02/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Cusco FC |
| 03/11/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Cusco FC |
| 25/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | Cusco FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 13/08/23 Peru Liga 1 | Cusco FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Alianza Lima |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 18 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | 50 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 25 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 47 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 45 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | 44 |
| 7 | CD Los Chankas | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 43 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 40 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 44 | 38 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 53 | 35 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 26 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 31 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | 26 |
| 16 | AD Tarma | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 42 | 25 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 50 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cusco FC | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Juan Pablo II College | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| UTC Cajamarca | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Universitario de Deportes | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Alianza Atletico | 4-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 4 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cusco FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
Alianza Lima
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 20/07 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cusco FC win (42%). Probabilities: Cusco FC 42%, draw 28%, Alianza Lima 30%.
How many goals are expected in Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Cusco FC 1.55 · Alianza Lima 1.29), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.