Football · Peru Liga 1 · 08/10, 22:30

Prediction: Atletico Grau vs CD Los Chankas

Team pages: Atletico Grau · CD Los Chankas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Atletico Grau1.98

CD Los Chankas0.99

1X2

59% 24% 17%

Atletico Grau Draw CD Los Chankas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Grau 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWLWL

CD Los Chankas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Atletico Grau 2–1–3 CD Los Chankas (6 last)

CD Los Chankas2-0Atletico Grau
CD Los Chankas3-2Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau2-1CD Los Chankas
Atletico Grau1-1CD Los Chankas
CD Los Chankas0-1Atletico Grau
CD Los Chankas3-1Atletico Grau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Grau 1506 · CD Los Chankas 1444

	Atletico Grau	Draw	CD Los Chankas
Our model	59%	23%	17%
Market	59%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Grau (rating 1506 vs 1444).
H2H favours CD Los Chankas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Grau	CD Los Chankas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.5	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.75

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.65 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:49 +6’	1.57	3.75	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:49 +5’	1.64	3.77	4.94
10:56 +4’	1.65▲	3.74▼	4.85▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Grau 2–1–3 CD Los Chankas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Peru Liga 1	CD Los Chankas	2-0 HT 2-0	Atletico Grau
10/08/25 Peru Liga 1	CD Los Chankas	3-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Grau
10/03/25 Peru Liga 1	Atletico Grau	2-1 HT 1-0	CD Los Chankas
21/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Atletico Grau	1-1 HT 0-1	CD Los Chankas
15/03/24 Peru Liga 1	CD Los Chankas	0-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Grau
16/09/21 Peru Liga 2	CD Los Chankas	3-1 HT 2-0	Atletico Grau

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	44	18	56
2	Universitario de Deportes	27	14	7	6	43	31	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	14	6	7	39	24	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	13	7	7	45	29	46
5	Cusco FC	27	14	3	10	40	38	45
6	CD Los Chankas	27	12	6	9	36	45	42
7	Cienciano	27	12	5	10	46	40	41
8	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	40	35	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	11	5	11	48	40	38
10	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	29	26	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	10	5	12	37	44	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	9	7	11	42	52	34
13	Atletico Grau	27	9	5	13	26	31	32
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	7	9	11	35	38	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	7	6	14	41	52	27
16	AD Tarma	27	6	7	14	29	42	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	27	6	7	14	24	41	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	4	8	15	32	50	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Grau	CD Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal	1-3 L	0-5 L
Alianza Atletico	3-1 W	1-3 L
FBC Melgar	1-0 W	0-3 L
FC Cajamarca	3-1 W	1-2 L
Comerciantes Unidos	1-0 W	3-2 W
Juan Pablo II College	0-0 D	3-4 L
Sport Boys	0-1 L	1-0 W
Sport Huancayo	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Grau (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Grau

WLLDWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-3	5	6	L
13/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
06/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-4	3	6	L
01/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
21/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
14/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
08/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
01/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
25/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
18/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-1	2	2	W

CD Los Chankas

WLWDLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
12/09	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-2	2	6	L
06/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-5	7	4	L
29/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-3	3-4	4	5	L
24/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
07/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	2	8	D
31/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	3-2	3-2	5	5	W
24/07	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
19/07	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Grau vs CD Los Chankas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Grau win (59%). Probabilities: Atletico Grau 59%, draw 24%, CD Los Chankas 17%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Grau vs CD Los Chankas?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Atletico Grau 1.98 · CD Los Chankas 0.99), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Grau vs CD Los Chankas?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.