Football · Peru Liga 1 · 11/10, 22:30
Prediction: Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico
Team pages: Sport Boys · Alianza Atletico
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.71Total
Sport Boys1.61
Alianza Atletico1.1
1X2
Sport Boys
Draw
Alianza Atletico
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sport Boys
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Alianza Atletico
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sport Boys
1–5
Alianza Atletico
(6 last)
- Alianza Atletico3-0Sport Boys
- Sport Boys2-5Alianza Atletico
- Alianza Atletico0-1Sport Boys
- Sport Boys0-1Alianza Atletico
- Alianza Atletico1-0Sport Boys
- Alianza Atletico2-0Sport Boys
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sport Boys 1511 · Alianza Atletico 1566
| Sport Boys | Draw | Alianza Atletico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1511 vs 1566).
- H2H favours Alianza Atletico: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sport Boys | Alianza Atletico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.1 | 2.2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.6 | 4.4 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Boys 1–0–5 Alianza Atletico
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/26 Peru Copa de la Liga | Alianza Atletico | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Sport Boys |
| 27/09/26 Peru Copa de la Liga | Sport Boys | 2-5 HT 2-3 | Alianza Atletico |
| 19/04/26 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sport Boys |
| 16/11/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Boys | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Alianza Atletico |
| 12/07/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sport Boys |
| 24/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sport Boys |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 18 | 56 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | 50 |
| 3 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 25 | 48 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 47 |
| 5 | Cusco FC | 27 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 40 | 38 | 45 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | 44 |
| 7 | CD Los Chankas | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 43 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 40 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 48 | 40 | 38 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 44 | 38 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 53 | 35 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 26 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 31 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | 26 |
| 16 | AD Tarma | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 42 | 25 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 50 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sport Boys | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Cienciano | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Moquegua | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Alianza Lima | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Atletico Grau | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| AD Tarma | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| CD Los Chankas | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sport Boys (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sport Boys
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 30/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
3-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 9 | D |
| 09/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 19/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
Alianza Atletico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 06/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Boys win (48%). Probabilities: Sport Boys 48%, draw 27%, Alianza Atletico 25%.
How many goals are expected in Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico?
The model expects 2.71 goals (Sport Boys 1.61 · Alianza Atletico 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.