Football · Peru Liga 1 · 11/10, 02:00

Prediction: Universitario de Deportes vs FBC Melgar

Team pages: Universitario de Deportes · FBC Melgar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Universitario de Deportes1.75

FBC Melgar1.01

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Universitario de Deportes Draw FBC Melgar

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Universitario de Deportes 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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FBC Melgar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Universitario de Deportes 4–2 FBC Melgar (6 last)

FBC Melgar2-1Universitario de Deportes
FBC Melgar1-2Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes4-1FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar1-0Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes2-0FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar0-1Universitario de Deportes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universitario de Deportes 1541 · FBC Melgar 1548

	Universitario de Deportes	Draw	FBC Melgar
Our model	54%	26%	21%
Market	53%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universitario de Deportes	FBC Melgar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	3.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.59 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +2’	1.73	3.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:23 +1339’	1.83	2.85	5.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Deportes 4–0–2 FBC Melgar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	2-1 HT 2-1	Universitario de Deportes
14/09/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-2 HT 1-1	Universitario de Deportes
14/04/25 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	4-1 HT 0-1	FBC Melgar
01/08/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-0 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes
18/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	2-0 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar
07/08/23 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	0-1 HT 0-1	Universitario de Deportes

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	44	18	56
2	Universitario de Deportes	27	14	7	6	43	31	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	14	6	7	39	24	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	13	7	7	45	29	46
5	Cusco FC	27	14	3	10	40	38	45
6	CD Los Chankas	27	12	6	9	36	45	42
7	Cienciano	27	12	5	10	46	40	41
8	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	40	35	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	11	5	11	48	40	38
10	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	29	26	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	10	5	12	37	44	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	9	7	11	42	52	34
13	Atletico Grau	27	9	5	13	26	31	32
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	7	9	11	35	38	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	7	6	14	41	52	27
16	AD Tarma	27	6	7	14	29	42	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	27	6	7	14	24	41	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	4	8	15	32	50	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universitario de Deportes	FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima	2-1 W	1-1 D
CD Los Chankas	3-0 W	3-0 W
FC Cajamarca	3-2 W	2-4 L
Sporting Cristal	1-1 D	2-1 W
Cienciano	0-2 L	3-1 W
Cusco FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
AD Tarma	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FBC Melgar (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-3	0-4	4	4	L
13/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
29/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
24/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
08/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
03/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
25/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	3	W

FBC Melgar

WWDLWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
12/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
07/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
01/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
09/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	10	8	L
02/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
26/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
18/07	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universitario de Deportes vs FBC Melgar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Deportes win (53%). Probabilities: Universitario de Deportes 53%, draw 26%, FBC Melgar 21%.

How many goals are expected in Universitario de Deportes vs FBC Melgar?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Universitario de Deportes 1.75 · FBC Melgar 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universitario de Deportes vs FBC Melgar?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.