Football · Peru Liga 1 · 25/10, 17:00
Prediction: Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
Team pages: Comerciantes Unidos · Cienciano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Comerciantes Unidos1.21
Cienciano1.56
1X2
Comerciantes Unidos
Draw
Cienciano
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Comerciantes Unidos
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Cienciano
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Comerciantes Unidos
1–1–4
Cienciano
(6 last)
- Cienciano1-0Comerciantes Unidos
- Comerciantes Unidos1-1Cienciano
- Cienciano3-2Comerciantes Unidos
- Comerciantes Unidos1-2Cienciano
- Cienciano1-0Comerciantes Unidos
- Comerciantes Unidos2-1Cienciano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Comerciantes Unidos 1452 · Cienciano 1504
| Comerciantes Unidos | Draw | Cienciano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 29% | 27% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cienciano (rating 1452 vs 1504).
- H2H favours Cienciano: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Comerciantes Unidos | Cienciano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.9 | 3.9 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.5 | 3.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Comerciantes Unidos 1–1–4 Cienciano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 08/08/25 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cienciano |
| 10/03/25 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 13/07/24 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Cienciano |
| 28/01/24 Peru Liga 1 | Cienciano | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 15/09/19 Peru Liga 2 | Comerciantes Unidos | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Cienciano |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 62 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 34 | 53 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 51 | 33 | 50 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 29 | 48 |
| 5 | Cienciano | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 40 | 47 |
| 6 | CD Los Chankas | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 46 | 46 |
| 7 | Cusco FC | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 45 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 53 | 42 | 44 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 44 | 40 | 43 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 45 | 41 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 53 | 38 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 31 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 34 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 43 | 31 |
| 15 | Deportivo Moquegua | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 43 | 28 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 41 | 53 | 26 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 44 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 29 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 32 | 52 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Comerciantes Unidos | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Universitario de Deportes | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| FC Cajamarca | 2-3 L | 5-2 W |
| UTC Cajamarca | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Cusco FC | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| CD Los Chankas | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cienciano (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Comerciantes Unidos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 18/09 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 14/08 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 07/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
Cienciano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 08/10 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 30/09 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 23/09 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 04/09 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
3-2 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
1-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 06/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cienciano win (44%). Probabilities: Comerciantes Unidos 29%, draw 27%, Cienciano 44%.
How many goals are expected in Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Comerciantes Unidos 1.21 · Cienciano 1.56), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.