Football · Peru Liga 1 · 24/10, 22:15
Prediction: Cusco FC vs Sporting Cristal
Team pages: Cusco FC · Sporting Cristal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Cusco FC1.62
Sporting Cristal1.26
1X2
Cusco FC
Draw
Sporting Cristal
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Cusco FC
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Sporting Cristal
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cusco FC
2–2–2
Sporting Cristal
(6 last)
- Sporting Cristal2-2Cusco FC
- Cusco FC2-0Sporting Cristal
- Sporting Cristal1-0Cusco FC
- Cusco FC3-2Sporting Cristal
- Sporting Cristal1-0Cusco FC
- Cusco FC1-1Sporting Cristal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cusco FC 1500 · Sporting Cristal 1590
| Cusco FC | Draw | Sporting Cristal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Cristal (rating 1500 vs 1590).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cusco FC | Sporting Cristal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 2.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.8 | 3.1 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cusco FC 2–2–2 Sporting Cristal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Cusco FC |
| 15/12/25 Peru Liga 1 | Cusco FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sporting Cristal |
| 11/12/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cusco FC |
| 15/09/25 Peru Liga 1 | Cusco FC | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Sporting Cristal |
| 13/04/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sporting Cristal | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cusco FC |
| 22/09/24 Peru Liga 1 | Cusco FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sporting Cristal |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 62 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 34 | 53 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 51 | 33 | 50 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 29 | 48 |
| 5 | Cienciano | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 40 | 47 |
| 6 | CD Los Chankas | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 46 | 46 |
| 7 | Cusco FC | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 45 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 53 | 42 | 44 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 44 | 40 | 43 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 45 | 41 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 53 | 38 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 31 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 34 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 43 | 31 |
| 15 | Deportivo Moquegua | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 43 | 28 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 41 | 53 | 26 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 44 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 29 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 32 | 52 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cusco FC | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Huancayo | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Deportivo Moquegua | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Juan Pablo II College | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1-3 L | 4-2 W |
| UTC Cajamarca | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cusco FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 12/10 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
Sporting Cristal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 11/10 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cusco FC vs Sporting Cristal?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cusco FC win (45%). Probabilities: Cusco FC 45%, draw 26%, Sporting Cristal 29%.
How many goals are expected in Cusco FC vs Sporting Cristal?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Cusco FC 1.62 · Sporting Cristal 1.26), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cusco FC vs Sporting Cristal?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.