Prediction: Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima
Team pages: Deportivo Moquegua · Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima2-1Deportivo Moquegua
| Deportivo Moquegua | Draw | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 27% | 58% |
| Market | 16% | 25% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (rating 1432 vs 1531).
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Moquegua | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.6 | 3.7 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 3.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Moquegua 0–0–1 Alianza Lima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Moquegua |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 62 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 34 | 53 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 51 | 33 | 50 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 29 | 48 |
| 5 | Cienciano | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 40 | 47 |
| 6 | CD Los Chankas | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 46 | 46 |
| 7 | Cusco FC | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 45 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 53 | 42 | 44 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 44 | 40 | 43 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 45 | 41 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 53 | 38 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 31 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 34 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 38 | 43 | 31 |
| 15 | Deportivo Moquegua | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 43 | 28 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 41 | 53 | 26 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 44 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 29 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 32 | 52 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Moquegua | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo II College | 0-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Cusco FC | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Alianza Atletico | 1-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Sport Boys | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| FBC Melgar | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 4 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Alianza Lima (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Moquegua
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 08/10 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 13/09 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 09/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
Alianza Lima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/10 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza Lima win (59%). Probabilities: Deportivo Moquegua 16%, draw 26%, Alianza Lima 59%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Deportivo Moquegua 0.69 · Alianza Lima 1.59), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.