Football · Peru Liga 1 · 25/10, 21:30

Prediction: Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca

Team pages: Sport Boys · FC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Sport Boys2.27

FC Cajamarca1.09

1X2

63% 22% 16%

Sport Boys Draw FC Cajamarca

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sport Boys 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWDLL

FC Cajamarca 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWLDL

Head-to-head

Sport Boys 0–1 FC Cajamarca (1 last)

FC Cajamarca3-2Sport Boys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sport Boys 1476 · FC Cajamarca 1453

	Sport Boys	Draw	FC Cajamarca
Our model	63%	21%	16%
Market	62%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sport Boys	FC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	1.5 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.10

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.48▼	Bet365 1.48
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.28
2	5.75 → 6.00▲	Pinn 6.35 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +2’	1.50	4.10	5.75
17:05 +19’	1.48▼	4.10	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:08 +77’	1.46	4.28	6.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Boys 0–0–1 FC Cajamarca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Peru Liga 1	FC Cajamarca	3-2 HT 2-0	Sport Boys

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	Universitario de Deportes	29	15	8	6	49	34	53
3	FBC Melgar	29	14	8	7	51	33	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	Cienciano	29	14	5	10	49	40	47
6	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
7	Cusco FC	29	14	3	12	42	42	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	13	5	11	53	42	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	12	7	10	44	40	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	12	5	12	40	45	41
11	Juan Pablo II College	29	10	8	11	45	53	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Atletico Grau	29	9	6	14	27	34	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	7	10	12	38	43	31
15	Deportivo Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25	43	28
16	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41	53	26
17	AD Tarma	29	6	8	15	30	44	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	29	4	8	17	32	52	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sport Boys	FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar	1-1 D	4-2 W
Sport Huancayo	1-2 L	0-2 L
Cienciano	5-1 W	2-5 L
Deportivo Moquegua	1-1 D	0-1 L
Atletico Grau	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sport Boys (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sport Boys

WDDWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
11/10	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	6	9	L
20/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
13/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
05/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
30/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
23/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	3-1	5-1	3	2	W
16/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	11	9	D
09/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
01/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	6	W

FC Cajamarca

LWLLWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
10/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
19/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	2	2	L
12/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
04/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-3	2-5	4	2	L
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
09/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	4	8	W
01/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Boys win (63%). Probabilities: Sport Boys 63%, draw 22%, FC Cajamarca 16%.

How many goals are expected in Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Sport Boys 2.27 · FC Cajamarca 1.09), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.