Football · Peru Liga 1 · 25/10, 02:30

Prediction: Universitario de Deportes vs Juan Pablo II College

Team pages: Universitario de Deportes · Juan Pablo II College

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Universitario de Deportes2.48

Juan Pablo II College1.02

1X2

68% 19% 13%

Universitario de Deportes Draw Juan Pablo II College

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Universitario de Deportes 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Juan Pablo II College 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Universitario de Deportes 2–1 Juan Pablo II College (3 last)

Juan Pablo II College1-4Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes3-0Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College2-0Universitario de Deportes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universitario de Deportes 1565 · Juan Pablo II College 1524

	Universitario de Deportes	Draw	Juan Pablo II College
Our model	68%	19%	13%
Market	68%	20%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (rating 1565 vs 1524).
H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universitario de Deportes	Juan Pablo II College
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.3	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.75

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 02:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.38▲	Bet365 1.38
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +2’	1.36	4.75	7.50
23:08 +5’	1.30▼	5.00▲	10.00▲
00:11 +2’	1.33▲	5.00	8.50▼
02:16 +2’	1.38▲	4.75▼	7.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Deportes 2–0–1 Juan Pablo II College

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	1-4 HT 0-3	Universitario de Deportes
06/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	3-0 HT 0-0	Juan Pablo II College
18/05/25 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	2-0 HT 1-0	Universitario de Deportes

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	Universitario de Deportes	29	15	8	6	49	34	53
3	FBC Melgar	29	14	8	7	51	33	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	Cienciano	29	14	5	10	49	40	47
6	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
7	Cusco FC	29	14	3	12	42	42	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	13	5	11	53	42	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	12	7	10	44	40	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	12	5	12	40	45	41
11	Juan Pablo II College	29	10	8	11	45	53	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Atletico Grau	29	9	6	14	27	34	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	7	10	12	38	43	31
15	Deportivo Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25	43	28
16	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41	53	26
17	AD Tarma	29	6	8	15	30	44	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	29	4	8	17	32	52	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universitario de Deportes	Juan Pablo II College
Alianza Lima	2-1 W	1-1 D
Comerciantes Unidos	2-2 D	1-1 D
UTC Cajamarca	4-2 W	2-1 W
CD Los Chankas	3-0 W	4-3 W
Sporting Cristal	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Universitario de Deportes (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universitario de Deportes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	3-0	4-1	5	5	W
11/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
20/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-3	0-4	4	4	L
13/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
29/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
24/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	0	2	W
16/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
08/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
03/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	0	L

Juan Pablo II College

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
10/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
20/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
11/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	11	W
06/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
29/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	3-2	4-3	2	5	W
22/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
15/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
08/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
02/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universitario de Deportes vs Juan Pablo II College?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Deportes win (68%). Probabilities: Universitario de Deportes 68%, draw 19%, Juan Pablo II College 13%.

How many goals are expected in Universitario de Deportes vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Universitario de Deportes 2.48 · Juan Pablo II College 1.02), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Universitario de Deportes vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.