Football · Peru Liga 1 · 29/10, 21:30

Prediction: Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima

Team pages: Sporting Cristal · Alianza Lima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Sporting Cristal1.78

Alianza Lima1.1

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Sporting Cristal Draw Alianza Lima

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Cristal 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWWWWL

Alianza Lima 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLDLWWW

Head-to-head

Sporting Cristal 0–5–1 Alianza Lima (6 last)

Alianza Lima1-1Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima3-3Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal1-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima0-0Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal1-2Alianza Lima
Sporting Cristal0-0Alianza Lima

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting Cristal (rating 1569 vs 1522).
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Cristal	Alianza Lima
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.6	3.7 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.86

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:11

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.35
X	3.13 → 3.13	Pinn 3.13
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:43 +28’	2.35	3.13	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Cristal 0–5–1 Alianza Lima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	1-1 HT 0-0	Sporting Cristal
07/12/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	3-3 HT 3-1	Sporting Cristal
03/12/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	1-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
06/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Cristal
02/03/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	1-2 HT 1-1	Alianza Lima
18/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	15	8	7	53	34	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	Cusco FC	30	15	3	12	45	43	48
6	Cienciano	30	14	5	11	50	43	47
7	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	13	5	12	54	45	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	13	5	12	44	46	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	12	7	11	45	44	43
11	Juan Pablo II College	30	10	8	12	45	56	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Comerciantes Unidos	30	8	10	12	41	44	34
14	Atletico Grau	30	9	7	14	28	35	34
15	Deportivo Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25	43	28
16	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41	53	26
17	AD Tarma	30	6	9	15	31	45	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	4	8	18	33	54	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Cristal	Alianza Lima
Cusco FC	1-3 L	2-1 W
UTC Cajamarca	1-0 W	1-0 W
Atletico Grau	3-1 W	3-1 W
Sport Boys	0-1 L	1-1 D
Alianza Atletico	1-3 L	3-1 W
Universitario de Deportes	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Lima (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Cristal

DWLLWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	12	3	L
18/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	4-2	5	1	W
11/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
19/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-1	9	6	W
13/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
06/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-0	9	4	W
30/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
21/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
16/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	11	4	W
08/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	4	4	D

Alianza Lima

WDWDLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
12/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
19/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
13/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
06/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
23/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
09/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
02/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Cristal win (52%). Probabilities: Sporting Cristal 52%, draw 26%, Alianza Lima 22%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Sporting Cristal 1.78 · Alianza Lima 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.