Football · Peru Liga 1 · 28/10, 17:00

Prediction: AD Tarma vs Deportivo Moquegua

Team pages: AD Tarma · Deportivo Moquegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

AD Tarma1.35

Deportivo Moquegua1.05

1X2

42% 30% 28%

AD Tarma Draw Deportivo Moquegua

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Tarma 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLWDLD

Deportivo Moquegua 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLDWLLLLLW

Head-to-head

AD Tarma 1–1–0 Deportivo Moquegua (2 last)

AD Tarma2-0Deportivo Moquegua
Deportivo Moquegua2-2AD Tarma

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Tarma	Deportivo Moquegua
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.9	0.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.8	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.52.01

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:08

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.65▲	Pinn 1.65
X	4.02 → 3.79▼	Pinn 3.79
2	5.49 → 4.81▼	Pinn 4.81

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +30’	1.55	4.02	5.49
21:07 +1’	1.65▲	3.79▼	4.81▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Tarma 1–1–0 Deportivo Moquegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/08/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	AD Tarma	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Moquegua
09/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Moquegua	2-2 HT 1-0	AD Tarma

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	15	8	7	53	34	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	Cusco FC	30	15	3	12	45	43	48
6	Cienciano	30	14	5	11	50	43	47
7	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	13	5	12	54	45	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	13	5	12	44	46	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	12	7	11	45	44	43
11	Juan Pablo II College	30	10	8	12	45	56	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Comerciantes Unidos	30	8	10	12	41	44	34
14	Atletico Grau	30	9	7	14	28	35	34
15	Deportivo Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25	43	28
16	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41	53	26
17	AD Tarma	30	6	9	15	31	45	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	4	8	18	33	54	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Tarma	Deportivo Moquegua
FC Cajamarca	0-0 D	1-0 W
Cienciano	2-1 W	0-2 L
FBC Melgar	0-3 L	0-0 D
Sport Huancayo	1-3 L	2-0 W
Juan Pablo II College	1-5 L	0-4 L
Alianza Atletico	1-1 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Moquegua (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Tarma

DDLLLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	10	D
16/10	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
10/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	9	8	D
23/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
19/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
07/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
30/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-3	9	10	L
22/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-5	6	0	L
15/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	15	9	D
08/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	1	8	D

Deportivo Moquegua

DLDWLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
08/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-4	0	7	L
13/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	10	7	L
06/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
30/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
22/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
16/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
09/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Tarma vs Deportivo Moquegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Tarma win (42%). Probabilities: AD Tarma 42%, draw 30%, Deportivo Moquegua 28%.

How many goals are expected in AD Tarma vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model expects 2.4 goals (AD Tarma 1.35 · Deportivo Moquegua 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Tarma vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.