Football · Peru Liga 1 · 30/10, 01:30

Prediction: FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos

Team pages: FBC Melgar · Comerciantes Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

FBC Melgar2.41

Comerciantes Unidos0.75

1X2

73% 18% 9%

FBC Melgar Draw Comerciantes Unidos

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FBC Melgar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWDDWW

Comerciantes Unidos 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLDLW

Head-to-head

FBC Melgar 2–4–0 Comerciantes Unidos (6 last)

Comerciantes Unidos1-1FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos1-1FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar1-1Comerciantes Unidos
FBC Melgar3-0Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos0-0FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar2-1Comerciantes Unidos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FBC Melgar 1546 · Comerciantes Unidos 1475

	FBC Melgar	Draw	Comerciantes Unidos
Our model	73%	18%	9%
Market	73%	19%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBC Melgar (rating 1546 vs 1475).
H2H favours FBC Melgar: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FBC Melgar	Comerciantes Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.6	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 6.35 ★
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:08 +2’	1.28	5.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:21 +47’	1.26	5.59	8.82
23:28 +40’	1.21▼	6.35▲	10.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FBC Melgar 2–4–0 Comerciantes Unidos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	1-1 HT 0-1	FBC Melgar
27/09/25 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	1-1 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar
02/05/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-1 HT 1-1	Comerciantes Unidos
07/09/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	3-0 HT 2-0	Comerciantes Unidos
02/03/24 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	0-0 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar
02/11/18 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	2-1 HT 0-0	Comerciantes Unidos

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	30	15	8	7	53	34	53
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	Cusco FC	30	15	3	12	45	43	48
6	Cienciano	30	14	5	11	50	43	47
7	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
8	Sporting Cristal	30	13	5	12	54	45	44
9	Sport Huancayo	30	13	5	12	44	46	44
10	Alianza Atletico	30	12	7	11	45	44	43
11	Juan Pablo II College	30	10	8	12	45	56	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Comerciantes Unidos	30	8	10	12	41	44	34
14	Atletico Grau	30	9	7	14	28	35	34
15	Deportivo Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25	43	28
16	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41	53	26
17	AD Tarma	30	6	9	15	31	45	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	30	4	8	18	33	54	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FBC Melgar	Comerciantes Unidos
UTC Cajamarca	2-1 W	3-1 W
Universitario de Deportes	2-2 D	2-2 D
Cusco FC	1-0 W	3-1 W
Atletico Grau	0-1 L	0-1 L
FC Cajamarca	2-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Comerciantes Unidos (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FBC Melgar

LWDLWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
18/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	6	4	W
11/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
12/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
07/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
01/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
15/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
09/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	10	8	L

Comerciantes Unidos

WLWLDLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	6	6	W
18/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-4	5	1	L
10/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
18/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
12/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
06/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
28/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
22/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
14/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
07/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FBC Melgar win (73%). Probabilities: FBC Melgar 73%, draw 18%, Comerciantes Unidos 9%.

How many goals are expected in FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The model expects 3.17 goals (FBC Melgar 2.41 · Comerciantes Unidos 0.75), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.