Football · Republic of Ireland FAI Cup · 17/07, 20:45
Prediction: St Patricks vs Wexford FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.13Total
St Patricks2.4
Wexford FC0.73
1X2
St Patricks
Draw
Wexford FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
St Patricks
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Wexford FC
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Patricks
4–1–1
Wexford FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Patricks 1501 · Wexford FC 1440
| St Patricks | Draw | Wexford FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 18% | 9% |
| Market | 75% | 15% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Patricks (rating 1501 vs 1440).
- H2H favours St Patricks: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Patricks | Wexford FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.9 | 2.8 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 6.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Patricks 4–1–1 Wexford FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/23 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup | St Patricks | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Wexford FC |
| 17/09/21 Republic of Ireland FAI Cup | St Patricks | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Wexford FC |
| 26/02/21 Club Friendly List | St Patricks | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Wexford FC |
| 26/01/20 Europe Friendlies | Wexford FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | St Patricks |
| 18/02/19 Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup | St Patricks | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Wexford FC |
| 12/01/19 Europe Friendlies | Wexford FC | 0-3 HT 0-0 | St Patricks |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Patricks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Doncaster Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
3-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/06 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/06 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 10 | D |
Wexford FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 26/06 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 12/06 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 08/05 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 04/05 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Patricks vs Wexford FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St Patricks win (74%). Probabilities: St Patricks 74%, draw 16%, Wexford FC 9%.
How many goals are expected in St Patricks vs Wexford FC?
The model expects 3.13 goals (St Patricks 2.4 · Wexford FC 0.73), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in St Patricks vs Wexford FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.