Football · Republic of Ireland FAI Cup · 17/07, 20:45
Prediction: Kerry FC vs Shelbourne
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Kerry FC0.98
Shelbourne1.75
1X2
Kerry FC
Draw
Shelbourne
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Kerry FC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Shelbourne
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kerry FC 1516 · Shelbourne 1524
| Kerry FC | Draw | Shelbourne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 22% | 21% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kerry FC | Shelbourne | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.8 | 1.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kerry FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 26/06 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 19/06 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/06 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 29/05 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 15/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 08/05 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Shelbourne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Celtic Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 03/07 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 27/06 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 22/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 19/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 12/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | Derry City Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 22/05 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kerry FC vs Shelbourne?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Shelbourne win (56%). Probabilities: Kerry FC 21%, draw 23%, Shelbourne 56%.
How many goals are expected in Kerry FC vs Shelbourne?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Kerry FC 0.98 · Shelbourne 1.75), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kerry FC vs Shelbourne?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.