Football · USA MLS · 02/10, 03:30

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · Sporting Kansas City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Seattle Sounders2.26

Sporting Kansas City1.05

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Seattle Sounders Draw Sporting Kansas City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDDDDW

Sporting Kansas City 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLLWL

Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 3–1–2 Sporting Kansas City (6 last)

Sporting Kansas City1-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders5-2Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City2-3Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders2-0Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City2-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-2Sporting Kansas City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1474 · Sporting Kansas City 1436

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	Sporting Kansas City
Our model	64%	21%	16%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Seattle Sounders: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	Sporting Kansas City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +5’	1.44	4.75	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 3–1–2 Sporting Kansas City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-1 HT 1-1	Seattle Sounders
25/08/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	5-2 HT 2-1	Sporting Kansas City
13/07/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-3 HT 0-3	Seattle Sounders
16/09/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-0 HT 2-0	Sporting Kansas City
09/06/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-1 HT 1-1	Seattle Sounders
07/05/23 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-2 HT 0-2	Sporting Kansas City

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	44
3	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	36
8	LA Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	32
10	Seattle Sounders	25	8	8	9	30	33	32
11	San Diego FC	26	8	7	11	44	44	31
12	Austin FC	26	7	9	10	32	44	30
13	Real Salt Lake	26	8	5	13	37	44	29
14	Minnesota United	26	7	8	11	39	46	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Seattle Sounders	Sporting Kansas City
Colorado Rapids	3-3 D	0-2 L
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-2 L	0-3 L
Philadelphia Union	0-1 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Seattle Sounders (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seattle Sounders

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
20/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	3-3	6	1	D
13/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
29/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
23/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
20/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
17/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
02/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	1	L

Sporting Kansas City

WLLLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	3-0	3-4	3	7	L
13/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
06/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-3	3-4	7	1	L
30/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
24/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Seattle Sounders win (64%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 64%, draw 20%, Sporting Kansas City 16%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Seattle Sounders 2.26 · Sporting Kansas City 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.