Football · USA MLS · 12/10, 01:00

Prediction: St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy

Team pages: St. Louis City SC · LA Galaxy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

St. Louis City SC2.2

LA Galaxy1.18

1X2

59% 22% 18%

St. Louis City SC Draw LA Galaxy

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

St. Louis City SC 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWDWWW

LA Galaxy 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLDWW

Head-to-head

St. Louis City SC 3–2–1 LA Galaxy (6 last)

LA Galaxy1-3St. Louis City SC
LA Galaxy3-0St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC3-3LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy0-3St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC2-1LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy3-3St. Louis City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St. Louis City SC 1604 · LA Galaxy 1517

	St. Louis City SC	Draw	LA Galaxy
Our model	60%	22%	19%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1604 vs 1517).
H2H favours St. Louis City SC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St. Louis City SC	LA Galaxy
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.61▲	Bet365 1.61
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.80 ★
2	5.00 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 4.8% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:10 +3’	1.57	4.20	5.00
07:10 +7’	1.65▲	4.10▼	5.00
10:07 +8’	1.61▼	4.20▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +9’	1.65	4.70	4.24
18:45 +28’	1.63▼	4.75▲	4.36▲
22:49 +63’	1.59▼	4.81▲	4.53▲
09:45 +29’	1.60▲	4.81	4.51▼
08:46 +1’	1.59▼	4.82▲	4.53▲
12:19 +89’	1.61▲	4.80▼	4.46▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St. Louis City SC 3–2–1 LA Galaxy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	1-3 HT 0-2	St. Louis City SC
11/02/26 America Friendlies	LA Galaxy	3-0	St. Louis City SC
14/06/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	3-3 HT 1-1	LA Galaxy
10/03/25 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	0-3 HT 0-1	St. Louis City SC
01/09/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-1 HT 1-0	LA Galaxy
17/03/24 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	3-3 HT 1-1	St. Louis City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	5	7	60	29	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St. Louis City SC	LA Galaxy
Minnesota United	4-2 W	3-2 W
Vancouver Whitecaps	3-1 W	0-3 L
FC Dallas	3-3 D	0-0 D
Houston Dynamo	2-1 W	0-1 L
San Jose Earthquakes	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St. Louis City SC

DWDWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
20/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
13/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-1	4-2	6	3	W
10/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
06/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-1	3-1	2	7	W
31/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
23/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
20/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D

LA Galaxy

DLWDLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-2	3-2	5	4	W
20/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-2	3-2	9	2	W
13/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
10/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
06/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
30/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	7	7	L
23/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
20/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
16/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
02/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St. Louis City SC win (59%). Probabilities: St. Louis City SC 59%, draw 22%, LA Galaxy 18%.

How many goals are expected in St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy?

The model expects 3.39 goals (St. Louis City SC 2.2 · LA Galaxy 1.18), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.