Football · USA MLS · 11/10, 02:30

Prediction: Austin FC vs Nashville SC

Team pages: Austin FC · Nashville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Austin FC1.07

Nashville SC1.63

1X2

24% 26% 50%

Austin FC Draw Nashville SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Austin FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDDWDD

Nashville SC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLDWW

Head-to-head

Austin FC 2–1–3 Nashville SC (6 last)

Austin FC1-2Nashville SC
Austin FC2-1Nashville SC
Nashville SC0-2Austin FC
Austin FC1-1Nashville SC
Nashville SC3-0Austin FC
Nashville SC1-0Austin FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Austin FC 1531 · Nashville SC 1567

	Austin FC	Draw	Nashville SC
Our model	24%	27%	49%
Market	25%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nashville SC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Austin FC	Nashville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	3.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.70

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.11 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.76
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:35 +7’	3.80	3.70	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +1281’	4.11	3.76	1.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Austin FC 2–1–3 Nashville SC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/10/25 USA US Open Cup	Austin FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Nashville SC
15/02/25 World Club Friendlies	Austin FC	2-1	Nashville SC
25/08/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	0-2 HT 0-1	Austin FC
18/09/22 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
04/09/22 USA MLS	Nashville SC	3-0 HT 0-0	Austin FC
24/05/21 USA MLS	Nashville SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Austin FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Austin FC

LLWDWDDWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	3-3	4	1	D
20/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
14/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	7	W
10/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
06/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
23/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
17/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	5	L

Nashville SC

DWWWWDLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-0	2-0	9	1	W
20/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
13/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
10/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	8	1	L
05/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	4-0	6	5	W
23/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	3-2	8	2	W
20/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	4-1	10	4	W
02/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Austin FC vs Nashville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nashville SC win (50%). Probabilities: Austin FC 24%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 50%.

How many goals are expected in Austin FC vs Nashville SC?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Austin FC 1.07 · Nashville SC 1.63), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Austin FC vs Nashville SC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.