Football · USA MLS · 11/10, 02:30

Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers

Team pages: Sporting Kansas City · Portland Timbers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.99Total

Sporting Kansas City2.04

Portland Timbers1.96

1X2

40% 23% 37%

Sporting Kansas City Draw Portland Timbers

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Kansas City 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWLWL

Portland Timbers 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWDLLL

Head-to-head

Sporting Kansas City 1–1–4 Portland Timbers (6 last)

Portland Timbers6-0Sporting Kansas City
Portland Timbers1-0Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City2-4Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers2-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City3-3Portland Timbers
Sporting Kansas City4-1Portland Timbers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City 1443 · Portland Timbers 1497

	Sporting Kansas City	Draw	Portland Timbers
Our model	40%	22%	37%
Market	40%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers (rating 1443 vs 1497).
H2H favours Portland Timbers: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Kansas City	Portland Timbers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.90

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.37
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.11 ★
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.59

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +9’	2.35	3.90	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +1281’	2.37	4.11	2.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City 1–1–4 Portland Timbers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	6-0 HT 4-0	Sporting Kansas City
11/05/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-0 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City
13/04/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-4 HT 2-2	Portland Timbers
26/05/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	2-1 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
07/04/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	3-3 HT 3-0	Portland Timbers
28/05/23 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	4-1 HT 1-1	Portland Timbers

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Kansas City	Portland Timbers
Seattle Sounders	1-2 L	2-1 W
Los Angeles FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
FC Dallas	3-4 L	1-2 L
Atlanta United	1-2 L	0-1 L
St. Louis City SC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Kansas City

LLDLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
27/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
20/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	3-0	3-4	3	7	L
13/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
06/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-3	3-4	7	1	L
30/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
24/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	2	L

Portland Timbers

WLWDLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-3	1-3	9	3	L
20/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
13/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
10/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
06/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-2	5-4	4	4	W
30/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
20/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-1	0	3	W
17/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Kansas City win (40%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City 40%, draw 23%, Portland Timbers 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?

The model expects 3.99 goals (Sporting Kansas City 2.04 · Portland Timbers 1.96), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.