Football · USA MLS · 11/10, 02:30

Prediction: Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo

Team pages: Minnesota United · Houston Dynamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Minnesota United1.57

Houston Dynamo1.21

1X2

45% 27% 29%

Minnesota United Draw Houston Dynamo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Minnesota United 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLLLL

Houston Dynamo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDDWLDL

Head-to-head

Minnesota United 2–1–3 Houston Dynamo (6 last)

Minnesota United3-1Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo2-0Minnesota United
Houston Dynamo1-1Minnesota United
Minnesota United1-2Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo0-3Minnesota United
Houston Dynamo4-0Minnesota United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minnesota United 1439 · Houston Dynamo 1509

	Minnesota United	Draw	Houston Dynamo
Our model	44%	27%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1439 vs 1509).
H2H favours Houston Dynamo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minnesota United	Houston Dynamo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.5	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.6	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.08
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.42 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +9’	2.05	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +1281’	2.08	3.60	3.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United 2–1–3 Houston Dynamo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	3-1 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo
15/05/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	2-0 HT 1-0	Minnesota United
14/07/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-1 HT 0-0	Minnesota United
14/04/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-2 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo
13/07/23 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	0-3 HT 0-2	Minnesota United
24/05/23 USA US Open Cup	Houston Dynamo	4-0 HT 1-0	Minnesota United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minnesota United	Houston Dynamo
LA Galaxy	2-3 L	1-0 W
St. Louis City SC	2-4 L	1-2 L
San Jose Earthquakes	5-1 W	0-1 L
Real Salt Lake	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Houston Dynamo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Minnesota United

DDLWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
20/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
13/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	2-4	5	3	L
10/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
06/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-3	4-5	3	4	L
30/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	8	4	D
23/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	3-1	5-1	3	1	W
20/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
16/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
02/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	8	2	D

Houston Dynamo

WWWLDDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
20/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	0	D
13/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
10/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
06/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
30/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
23/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
20/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minnesota United win (45%). Probabilities: Minnesota United 45%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 29%.

How many goals are expected in Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Minnesota United 1.57 · Houston Dynamo 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.