Football · USA MLS · 11/10, 03:30

Prediction: Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes

Team pages: Colorado Rapids · San Jose Earthquakes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Colorado Rapids1.75

San Jose Earthquakes1.26

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Colorado Rapids Draw San Jose Earthquakes

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Colorado Rapids 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLDWDL

San Jose Earthquakes 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDWWDW

Head-to-head

Colorado Rapids 3–1–2 San Jose Earthquakes (6 last)

Colorado Rapids2-0San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids0-2San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes1-2Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids2-3San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes0-3Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids0-0San Jose Earthquakes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Colorado Rapids 1497 · San Jose Earthquakes 1486

	Colorado Rapids	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
Our model	48%	26%	27%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Colorado Rapids: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Colorado Rapids	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.70

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.87
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.67 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +1’	1.95	3.70	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:21 +1043’	1.92	3.87	3.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Colorado Rapids 3–1–2 San Jose Earthquakes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 USA US Open Cup	Colorado Rapids	2-0 HT 2-0	San Jose Earthquakes
11/05/25 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	0-2 HT 0-1	San Jose Earthquakes
16/03/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-2 HT 1-1	Colorado Rapids
12/05/24 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	2-3 HT 2-2	San Jose Earthquakes
14/04/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	0-3 HT 0-1	Colorado Rapids
04/06/23 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	0-0 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Colorado Rapids	San Jose Earthquakes
LA Galaxy	2-3 L	0-1 L
Austin FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
San Diego FC	0-3 L	3-2 W
Los Angeles FC	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Colorado Rapids

WWWLWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	2-3	6	4	L
20/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	3-3	4	1	D
13/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
10/09	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
06/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
30/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
23/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-2	0-3	3	3	L
20/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
02/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	11	5	W

San Jose Earthquakes

LLLLDDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-0	3-1	5	3	W
20/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	18	4	D
13/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-1	3-2	3	10	W
06/09	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
23/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-3	1-5	3	1	L
20/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Colorado Rapids win (48%). Probabilities: Colorado Rapids 48%, draw 25%, San Jose Earthquakes 27%.

How many goals are expected in Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Colorado Rapids 1.75 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.26), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.