Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 16/08, 17:45

Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Transinvest

Team pages: FK Kauno Zalgiris · FK Transinvest

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

FK Kauno Zalgiris1.85

FK Transinvest0.8

1X2

62% 23% 15%

FK Kauno Zalgiris Draw FK Transinvest

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kauno Zalgiris 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDWLWL

FK Transinvest 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLLWWL

Head-to-head

FK Kauno Zalgiris 4–2 FK Transinvest (6 last)

FK Transinvest1-2FK Kauno Zalgiris
FK Kauno Zalgiris1-2FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest0-3FK Kauno Zalgiris
FK Kauno Zalgiris2-0FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest3-2FK Kauno Zalgiris
FK Kauno Zalgiris2-1FK Transinvest

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1519 · FK Transinvest 1505

	FK Kauno Zalgiris	Draw	FK Transinvest
Our model	61%	24%	15%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Kauno Zalgiris: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kauno Zalgiris	FK Transinvest
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	2.5 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.45▼	Pinn 1.56 ★
X	3.75 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	4.75 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +49’	1.57	3.75	4.75
10:32 +4’	1.45▼	4.00▲	5.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:15	1.60	3.76	4.80
10:36 +1’	1.51▼	4.08▲	5.86▲
12:04 +1’	1.56▲	3.95▼	5.41▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris 4–0–2 FK Transinvest

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris
18/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Transinvest
31/08/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Kauno Zalgiris
26/06/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Transinvest
02/05/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	3-2 HT 0-2	FK Kauno Zalgiris
12/03/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Transinvest

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	21	10	7	4	40	15	37
2	FK Dziugas Telsiai	23	10	7	6	34	27	37
3	Suduva Marijampole	21	9	9	3	29	17	36
4	FK Transinvest	23	10	5	8	32	31	35
5	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	21	10	4	7	33	24	34
6	Banga Gargzdai	22	9	6	7	25	19	33
7	Panevezys	22	6	5	11	21	38	23
8	Hegelmann Litauen	24	4	10	10	26	41	22
9	FK Siauliai	23	2	7	14	22	50	13

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kauno Zalgiris	FK Transinvest
Hegelmann Litauen	2-0 W	2-1 W
Panevezys	3-0 W	0-2 L
FK Dziugas Telsiai	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Kauno Zalgiris

WDDWWDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-2	1-2	8	4	L
08/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
04/08	Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-2	0-5	0	1	L
29/07	KI Klaksvik UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
21/07	KI Klaksvik UEFA Champions League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
14/07	KF Drita UEFA Champions League Qualifying	1-1	3-2	7	4	W
11/07	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
07/07	KF Drita UEFA Champions League Qualifying	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
03/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
23/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania Cup	1-0	3-0	4	2	W

FK Transinvest

WLDWDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
26/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-3	10	4	L
12/07	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	9	6	L
06/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
24/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-1	14	6	D
20/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
12/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-1	11	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Transinvest?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kauno Zalgiris win (62%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris 62%, draw 23%, FK Transinvest 15%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Transinvest?

The model expects 2.65 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris 1.85 · FK Transinvest 0.8), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Transinvest?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.