Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 23/08, 17:30

Prediction: Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga Gargzdai

Team pages: Hegelmann Litauen · Banga Gargzdai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Hegelmann Litauen0.99

Banga Gargzdai1.5

1X2

24% 27% 48%

Hegelmann Litauen Draw Banga Gargzdai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hegelmann Litauen 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLWLLL

Banga Gargzdai 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Hegelmann Litauen 2–1–3 Banga Gargzdai (6 last)

Banga Gargzdai2-0Hegelmann Litauen
Banga Gargzdai2-1Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen0-2Banga Gargzdai
Hegelmann Litauen0-0Banga Gargzdai
Banga Gargzdai0-1Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen2-0Banga Gargzdai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hegelmann Litauen 1434 · Banga Gargzdai 1572

	Hegelmann Litauen	Draw	Banga Gargzdai
Our model	24%	28%	48%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Banga Gargzdai (rating 1434 vs 1572).
H2H favours Banga Gargzdai: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hegelmann Litauen	Banga Gargzdai
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.43
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.98 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:15 +3’	3.60	3.40	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:37 +1’	3.63	3.42	1.96
05:20 +3’	3.62▼	3.42	1.96
20:22 +8’	3.55▼	3.43▲	1.98▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hegelmann Litauen 2–1–3 Banga Gargzdai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	2-0 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen
26/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	2-1 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen
22/02/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	0-2 HT 0-0	Banga Gargzdai
05/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	0-0 HT 0-0	Banga Gargzdai
13/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	0-1 HT 0-1	Hegelmann Litauen
31/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	2-0 HT 0-0	Banga Gargzdai

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	22	10	9	3	31	17	39
2	FK Kauno Zalgiris	22	10	8	4	41	16	38
3	FK Dziugas Telsiai	24	10	7	7	34	29	37
4	Banga Gargzdai	23	10	6	7	28	21	36
5	FK Transinvest	24	10	6	8	33	32	36
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	22	10	4	8	35	27	34
7	Panevezys	23	6	5	12	21	39	23
8	Hegelmann Litauen	24	4	10	10	26	41	22
9	FK Siauliai	24	3	7	14	23	50	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hegelmann Litauen	Banga Gargzdai
FK Kauno Zalgiris	0-2 L	1-0 W
FK Transinvest	1-2 L	3-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	2-3 L	3-2 W
FK Siauliai	2-0 W	3-1 W
Suduva Marijampole	1-5 L	0-3 L
FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Banga Gargzdai (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hegelmann Litauen

LDDLDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-2	0	4	L
02/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
27/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-3	6	3	L
24/07	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-0	5	8	W
20/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-3	1-5	2	2	L
04/07	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
28/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
17/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
14/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
29/05	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-2	6	3	L

Banga Gargzdai

DDWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-2	4	5	W
09/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
03/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-1	4	8	W
19/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
12/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	3	6	W
28/06	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	0	2	W
17/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
13/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
30/05	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga Gargzdai?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Banga Gargzdai win (48%). Probabilities: Hegelmann Litauen 24%, draw 27%, Banga Gargzdai 48%.

How many goals are expected in Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga Gargzdai?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Hegelmann Litauen 0.99 · Banga Gargzdai 1.5), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga Gargzdai?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.