Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 24/08, 17:45

Prediction: FK Transinvest vs FK Siauliai

Team pages: FK Transinvest · FK Siauliai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

FK Transinvest2.18

FK Siauliai1.15

1X2

60% 22% 18%

FK Transinvest Draw FK Siauliai

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Transinvest 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWWLD

FK Siauliai 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

FK Transinvest 3–1–2 FK Siauliai (6 last)

FK Siauliai1-3FK Transinvest
FK Siauliai0-4FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest2-2FK Siauliai
FK Transinvest2-0FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai1-0FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest1-3FK Siauliai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Transinvest 1516 · FK Siauliai 1407

	FK Transinvest	Draw	FK Siauliai
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Transinvest (rating 1516 vs 1407).
H2H favours FK Transinvest: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Transinvest	FK Siauliai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.3 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.5	2.3 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.50▼	Pinn 1.55
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.15
2	4.75 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.19 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:31 +12’	1.53	3.90	4.75
13:06 +2’	1.50▼	4.00▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:52	1.53	4.22	5.38
07:19	1.55▲	4.15▼	5.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Transinvest 3–1–2 FK Siauliai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	1-3 HT 1-1	FK Transinvest
26/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	0-4 HT 0-2	FK Transinvest
22/02/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	2-2 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai
21/09/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai
05/07/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Transinvest
18/05/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Siauliai

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	22	10	9	3	31	17	39
2	FK Kauno Zalgiris	22	10	8	4	41	16	38
3	FK Dziugas Telsiai	24	10	7	7	34	29	37
4	Banga Gargzdai	23	10	6	7	28	21	36
5	FK Transinvest	24	10	6	8	33	32	36
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	22	10	4	8	35	27	34
7	Panevezys	23	6	5	12	21	39	23
8	Hegelmann Litauen	24	4	10	10	26	41	22
9	FK Siauliai	24	3	7	14	23	50	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Transinvest	FK Siauliai
Panevezys	0-2 L	1-0 W
Hegelmann Litauen	2-1 W	0-2 L
FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-0 W	3-4 L
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	1-3 L	0-3 L
Banga Gargzdai	1-3 L	1-3 L
Suduva Marijampole	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Transinvest (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Transinvest

WLWDLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
10/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
26/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-3	10	4	L
12/07	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	9	6	L
06/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
20/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
12/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-1	11	4	W

FK Siauliai

DLLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-3	3-4	7	6	L
03/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	1-3	9	8	L
24/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-2	5	8	L
05/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-3	8	0	L
29/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
20/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
16/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
12/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	3-4	3	1	L
30/05	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Transinvest vs FK Siauliai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Transinvest win (60%). Probabilities: FK Transinvest 60%, draw 22%, FK Siauliai 18%.

How many goals are expected in FK Transinvest vs FK Siauliai?

The model expects 3.33 goals (FK Transinvest 2.18 · FK Siauliai 1.15), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Transinvest vs FK Siauliai?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.