Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 17/08, 17:45

Prediction: FK Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva Marijampole

Team pages: FK Dziugas Telsiai · Suduva Marijampole

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

FK Dziugas Telsiai1.1

Suduva Marijampole1.37

1X2

29% 29% 42%

FK Dziugas Telsiai Draw Suduva Marijampole

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Dziugas Telsiai 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDDWLDW

Suduva Marijampole 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWWDWW

Head-to-head

FK Dziugas Telsiai 1–2–3 Suduva Marijampole (6 last)

FK Dziugas Telsiai1-2Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole3-2FK Dziugas Telsiai
FK Dziugas Telsiai0-0Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole2-3FK Dziugas Telsiai
FK Dziugas Telsiai1-1Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole1-0FK Dziugas Telsiai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Dziugas Telsiai 1492 · Suduva Marijampole 1599

	FK Dziugas Telsiai	Draw	Suduva Marijampole
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suduva Marijampole (rating 1492 vs 1599).
H2H favours Suduva Marijampole: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Dziugas Telsiai	Suduva Marijampole
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.8	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.37 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.28
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:47 +10’	3.00	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +1’	2.86	3.20	2.29
10:46 +1’	3.37▲	3.28▲	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Dziugas Telsiai 1–2–3 Suduva Marijampole

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-2 HT 0-1	Suduva Marijampole
19/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	3-2 HT 1-1	FK Dziugas Telsiai
18/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Dziugas Telsiai	0-0 HT 0-0	Suduva Marijampole
27/07/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	2-3 HT 0-2	FK Dziugas Telsiai
25/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-1 HT 0-1	Suduva Marijampole
28/03/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Dziugas Telsiai

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	21	10	7	4	40	15	37
2	FK Dziugas Telsiai	23	10	7	6	34	27	37
3	Suduva Marijampole	21	9	9	3	29	17	36
4	FK Transinvest	23	10	5	8	32	31	35
5	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	21	10	4	7	33	24	34
6	Banga Gargzdai	22	9	6	7	25	19	33
7	Panevezys	22	6	5	11	21	38	23
8	Hegelmann Litauen	24	4	10	10	26	41	22
9	FK Siauliai	23	2	7	14	22	50	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Dziugas Telsiai	Suduva Marijampole
FK Siauliai	4-3 W	2-1 W
Panevezys	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Transinvest	0-1 L	0-0 D
Banga Gargzdai	1-0 W	3-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris	0-0 D	2-1 W
Hegelmann Litauen	1-1 D	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Suduva Marijampole (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Dziugas Telsiai

WDLLDDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	3-1	4-3	4	6	W
03/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	8	D
26/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/07	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
03/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
28/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
24/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-2	7	7	L
21/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
17/06	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	4-3	3	1	W

Suduva Marijampole

DWWDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
20/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	3-0	5-1	4	2	W
06/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
29/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
21/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
16/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
13/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
29/05	FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
23/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
16/05	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-2	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva Marijampole?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Suduva Marijampole win (42%). Probabilities: FK Dziugas Telsiai 29%, draw 29%, Suduva Marijampole 42%.

How many goals are expected in FK Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva Marijampole?

The model expects 2.47 goals (FK Dziugas Telsiai 1.1 · Suduva Marijampole 1.37), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva Marijampole?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.