Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 17/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai vs Panevezys

Team pages: FK Siauliai · Panevezys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

FK Siauliai1.64

Panevezys1.82

1X2

34% 25% 41%

FK Siauliai Draw Panevezys

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLLLL

Panevezys 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLDDDW

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai 3–1–2 Panevezys (6 last)

Panevezys3-2FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai3-1Panevezys
FK Siauliai3-3Panevezys
Panevezys2-0FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai2-1Panevezys
Panevezys1-3FK Siauliai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai 1410 · Panevezys 1473

	FK Siauliai	Draw	Panevezys
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Panevezys (rating 1410 vs 1473).
H2H favours FK Siauliai: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai	Panevezys
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.6	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.4	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.53
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.39 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +8’	2.70	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +1’	3.38	3.43	1.95
10:46 +1’	2.66▼	3.53▲	2.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai 3–1–2 Panevezys

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	3-2 HT 2-1	FK Siauliai
18/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	3-1 HT 0-1	Panevezys
05/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	3-3 HT 1-1	Panevezys
20/07/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai
01/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	2-1 HT 0-0	Panevezys
02/03/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	1-3 HT 1-2	FK Siauliai

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	21	10	7	4	40	15	37
2	FK Dziugas Telsiai	23	10	7	6	34	27	37
3	Suduva Marijampole	21	9	9	3	29	17	36
4	FK Transinvest	23	10	5	8	32	31	35
5	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	21	10	4	7	33	24	34
6	Banga Gargzdai	22	9	6	7	25	19	33
7	Panevezys	22	6	5	11	21	38	23
8	Hegelmann Litauen	24	4	10	10	26	41	22
9	FK Siauliai	23	2	7	14	22	50	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai	Panevezys
FK Dziugas Telsiai	3-4 L	1-1 D
Hegelmann Litauen	0-2 L	1-1 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	0-3 L	0-3 L
FK Transinvest	1-3 L	2-0 W
Suduva Marijampole	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Panevezys (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Siauliai

DLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-3	3-4	7	6	L
03/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	1-3	9	8	L
24/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-2	5	8	L
05/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-3	8	0	L
29/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
24/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania Cup	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
20/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
16/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
12/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	3-4	3	1	L
30/05	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	7	1	D

Panevezys

LWLLDLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
03/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
30/07	Tobol Kostanay UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	Tobol Kostanay UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
11/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
04/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
29/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
23/06	FK Minija Lithuania Cup	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
20/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
16/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai vs Panevezys?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Panevezys win (41%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai 34%, draw 25%, Panevezys 41%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai vs Panevezys?

The model expects 3.46 goals (FK Siauliai 1.64 · Panevezys 1.82), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai vs Panevezys?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.