Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 16/08, 18:30

Prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai

Team pages: FK Zalgiris Vilnius · Banga Gargzdai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.66

Banga Gargzdai1.04

1X2

51% 26% 23%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius Draw Banga Gargzdai

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Banga Gargzdai 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–2–2 Banga Gargzdai (6 last)

Banga Gargzdai3-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-1Banga Gargzdai
Banga Gargzdai0-2FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-0Banga Gargzdai
Banga Gargzdai2-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-1Banga Gargzdai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1555 · Banga Gargzdai 1522

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	Draw	Banga Gargzdai
Our model	51%	27%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	Banga Gargzdai
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.8	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	1.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.98 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:50 +1’	1.75	3.40	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:16 +1’	2.12	3.17	3.20
10:36 +2’	1.98▼	3.24▲	3.79▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–2–2 Banga Gargzdai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
17/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	1-1 HT 0-1	Banga Gargzdai
13/09/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
04/07/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	1-0 HT 1-0	Banga Gargzdai
03/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
15/03/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	1-1 HT 0-0	Banga Gargzdai

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	21	10	7	4	40	15	37
2	FK Dziugas Telsiai	23	10	7	6	34	27	37
3	Suduva Marijampole	21	9	9	3	29	17	36
4	FK Transinvest	23	10	5	8	32	31	35
5	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	21	10	4	7	33	24	34
6	Banga Gargzdai	22	9	6	7	25	19	33
7	Panevezys	22	6	5	11	21	38	23
8	Hegelmann Litauen	24	4	10	10	26	41	22
9	FK Siauliai	23	2	7	14	22	50	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	Banga Gargzdai
Hegelmann Litauen	3-2 W	2-0 W
FK Transinvest	3-1 W	3-1 W
FK Siauliai	3-0 W	3-1 W
FK Dziugas Telsiai	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Hajduk Split UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-2	2-5	2	4	L
30/07	Dinamo Tbilisi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	7-2	5	9	W
27/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	3	W
23/07	Dinamo Tbilisi UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-3	0-3	3	3	L
19/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
16/07	OFK Petrovac UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
09/07	OFK Petrovac UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
05/07	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	3-0	4	0	W
28/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
20/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	2	L

Banga Gargzdai

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
03/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-1	4	8	W
19/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
12/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	3	6	W
28/06	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	0	2	W
17/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
13/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
30/05	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
24/05	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Zalgiris Vilnius win (51%). Probabilities: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 51%, draw 26%, Banga Gargzdai 23%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai?

The model expects 2.7 goals (FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.66 · Banga Gargzdai 1.04), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Gargzdai?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.