Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai vs Suduva Marijampole

Team pages: FK Siauliai · Suduva Marijampole

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

FK Siauliai0.94

Suduva Marijampole1.95

1X2

17% 23% 60%

FK Siauliai Draw Suduva Marijampole

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLWL

Suduva Marijampole 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai 2–3–1 Suduva Marijampole (6 last)

Suduva Marijampole2-1FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai2-1Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole0-0FK Siauliai
Suduva Marijampole2-2FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai2-1Suduva Marijampole
FK Siauliai2-2Suduva Marijampole

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai 1417 · Suduva Marijampole 1603

	FK Siauliai	Draw	Suduva Marijampole
Our model	17%	23%	60%
Market	17%	22%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suduva Marijampole (rating 1417 vs 1603).
H2H favours FK Siauliai: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai	Suduva Marijampole
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.7	2.1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.3	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.00

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.02

2 (-1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 5.25▼	Pinn 6.05 ★
X	4.50 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.12
2	1.36 → 1.48▲	Pinn 1.49

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:52 +1’	6.25	4.50	1.36
02:25 +28’	5.25▼	4.00▼	1.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:53 +1’	6.05	4.12	1.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai 2–3–1 Suduva Marijampole

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Siauliai
02/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	2-1 HT 0-1	Suduva Marijampole
01/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Siauliai
02/11/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	2-2 HT 0-1	FK Siauliai
25/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	2-1 HT 1-0	Suduva Marijampole
25/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	2-2 HT 0-0	Suduva Marijampole

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	23	11	9	3	33	17	42
2	FK Transinvest	25	11	6	8	36	32	39
3	FK Kauno Zalgiris	22	10	8	4	41	16	38
4	Banga Gargzdai	24	10	7	7	29	22	37
5	FK Dziugas Telsiai	25	10	7	8	34	31	37
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	23	11	4	8	37	27	37
7	Hegelmann Litauen	25	4	11	10	27	42	23
8	Panevezys	24	6	5	13	21	41	23
9	FK Siauliai	25	3	7	15	23	53	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai	Suduva Marijampole
FK Transinvest	0-3 L	0-0 D
Panevezys	1-0 W	2-0 W
FK Dziugas Telsiai	3-4 L	2-0 W
Banga Gargzdai	1-3 L	3-0 W
Hegelmann Litauen	0-2 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Suduva Marijampole (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Siauliai

LLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
17/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-3	3-4	7	6	L
03/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	1-3	9	8	L
24/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-2	5	8	L
05/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-3	8	0	L
29/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	8	2	L
20/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	2-3	8	5	L
16/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
12/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	3-4	3	1	L

Suduva Marijampole

WDWWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
17/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
09/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
20/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	3-0	5-1	4	2	W
06/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
29/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
21/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
16/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
13/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
29/05	FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai vs Suduva Marijampole?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Suduva Marijampole win (60%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai 17%, draw 23%, Suduva Marijampole 60%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai vs Suduva Marijampole?

The model expects 2.9 goals (FK Siauliai 0.94 · Suduva Marijampole 1.95), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai vs Suduva Marijampole?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.