Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 30/08, 18:00

Prediction: Panevezys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Team pages: Panevezys · FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Panevezys1.13

FK Zalgiris Vilnius2.19

1X2

18% 22% 61%

Panevezys Draw FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Panevezys 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLDWLL

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Panevezys 2–4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius (6 last)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-0Panevezys
Panevezys2-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius4-1Panevezys
Panevezys3-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-1Panevezys
Panevezys2-4FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Panevezys 1468 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1535

	Panevezys	Draw	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Our model	18%	22%	61%
Market	18%	21%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius (rating 1468 vs 1535).
H2H favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Panevezys	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.20

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.02

2 (-1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
X	3.75 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.85 ★
2	1.73 → 1.48▼	Pinn 1.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:53 +5’	3.75	3.75	1.73
01:16 +3’	4.33▲	4.00▲	1.57▼
10:00 +1’	5.00▲	4.20▲	1.48▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:57 +1’	4.01	4.59	1.64
04:39 +2’	4.01	4.57▼	1.64
07:26 +1’	4.01	4.53▼	1.65▲
10:01 +1’	4.82▲	4.85▲	1.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Panevezys 2–0–4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	3-0 HT 2-0	Panevezys
03/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	2-1 HT 0-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
27/02/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	4-1 HT 1-1	Panevezys
08/11/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	3-1 HT 2-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
31/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	2-1 HT 1-0	Panevezys
29/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	2-4 HT 2-2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	23	11	9	3	33	17	42
2	FK Transinvest	25	11	6	8	36	32	39
3	FK Kauno Zalgiris	22	10	8	4	41	16	38
4	Banga Gargzdai	24	10	7	7	29	22	37
5	FK Dziugas Telsiai	25	10	7	8	34	31	37
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	23	11	4	8	37	27	37
7	Hegelmann Litauen	25	4	11	10	27	42	23
8	Panevezys	24	6	5	13	21	41	23
9	FK Siauliai	25	3	7	15	23	53	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Panevezys	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Siauliai	0-1 L	3-0 W
FK Transinvest	2-0 W	3-1 W
FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-1 D	2-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris	0-3 L	1-0 W
Hegelmann Litauen	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Panevezys

LLWLDLDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
10/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
03/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
11/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
04/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
29/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
20/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
16/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
12/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-2	3	4	L

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

WWWLDWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
16/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-3	10	5	L
27/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	3	W
19/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
05/07	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	3-0	4	0	W
28/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
20/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
16/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
12/06	FK Riteriai Lithuania A Lyga	3-0	3-2	7	2	W
31/05	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Panevezys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Zalgiris Vilnius win (61%). Probabilities: Panevezys 18%, draw 22%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 61%.

How many goals are expected in Panevezys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Panevezys 1.13 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2.19), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Panevezys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.