Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 06/09, 17:45
Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Dziugas Telsiai
Team pages: FK Kauno Zalgiris · FK Dziugas Telsiai
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
FK Kauno Zalgiris1.7
FK Dziugas Telsiai0.69
1X2
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Draw
FK Dziugas Telsiai
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Kauno Zalgiris
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
FK Dziugas Telsiai
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Kauno Zalgiris
4–2–0
FK Dziugas Telsiai
(6 last)
- FK Dziugas Telsiai0-0FK Kauno Zalgiris
- FK Kauno Zalgiris2-2FK Dziugas Telsiai
- FK Dziugas Telsiai1-2FK Kauno Zalgiris
- FK Kauno Zalgiris2-1FK Dziugas Telsiai
- FK Dziugas Telsiai1-2FK Kauno Zalgiris
- FK Dziugas Telsiai0-1FK Kauno Zalgiris
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1532 · FK Dziugas Telsiai 1449
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | Draw | FK Dziugas Telsiai | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 26% | 14% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kauno Zalgiris (rating 1532 vs 1449).
- H2H favours FK Kauno Zalgiris: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | FK Dziugas Telsiai | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.6 | 1.1 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris 4–2–0 FK Dziugas Telsiai
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 05/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 2-2 HT 2-0 | FK Dziugas Telsiai |
| 07/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 21/09/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 2-1 HT 2-1 | FK Dziugas Telsiai |
| 17/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 1-2 HT 0-1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 09/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suduva Marijampole | 24 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 35 | 18 | 45 |
| 2 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 41 | 16 | 39 |
| 3 | FK Transinvest | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 36 | 32 | 39 |
| 4 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 36 | 33 | 38 |
| 5 | Banga Gargzdai | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 38 |
| 6 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 29 | 37 |
| 7 | Panevezys | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 41 | 29 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 29 | 44 | 24 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 26 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 55 | 16 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Kauno Zalgiris | FK Dziugas Telsiai |
|---|---|---|
| Banga Gargzdai | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| FK Transinvest | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Panevezys | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Suduva Marijampole | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kauno Zalgiris
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 16/08 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 17/06 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/06 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
FK Dziugas Telsiai
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 17/08 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
3-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 03/08 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 26/07 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 03/07 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 21/06 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Dziugas Telsiai?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kauno Zalgiris win (62%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris 62%, draw 23%, FK Dziugas Telsiai 15%.
How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Dziugas Telsiai?
The model expects 2.4 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris 1.7 · FK Dziugas Telsiai 0.69), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Dziugas Telsiai?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.