Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 03/09, 18:00

Prediction: Banga Gargzdai vs Panevezys

Team pages: Banga Gargzdai · Panevezys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Banga Gargzdai1.54

Panevezys0.9

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Banga Gargzdai Draw Panevezys

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Banga Gargzdai 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWLWD

Panevezys 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLDWLL

Head-to-head

Banga Gargzdai 0–3–3 Panevezys (6 last)

Panevezys1-0Banga Gargzdai
Banga Gargzdai0-1Panevezys
Banga Gargzdai2-2Panevezys
Panevezys1-0Banga Gargzdai
Banga Gargzdai1-1Panevezys
Panevezys1-1Banga Gargzdai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Banga Gargzdai 1530 · Panevezys 1468

	Banga Gargzdai	Draw	Panevezys
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Banga Gargzdai (rating 1530 vs 1468).
H2H favours Panevezys: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Banga Gargzdai	Panevezys
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.75

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:32 +8’	1.70	3.75	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Banga Gargzdai 0–3–3 Panevezys

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	1-0 HT 1-0	Banga Gargzdai
21/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	0-1 HT 0-0	Panevezys
18/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	2-2 HT 1-2	Panevezys
20/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	1-0 HT 0-0	Banga Gargzdai
23/05/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	1-1 HT 0-1	Panevezys
30/03/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	1-1 HT 0-1	Banga Gargzdai

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	23	11	9	3	33	17	42
2	FK Transinvest	25	11	6	8	36	32	39
3	FK Kauno Zalgiris	22	10	8	4	41	16	38
4	Banga Gargzdai	24	10	7	7	29	22	37
5	FK Dziugas Telsiai	25	10	7	8	34	31	37
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	23	11	4	8	37	27	37
7	Hegelmann Litauen	25	4	11	10	27	42	23
8	Panevezys	24	6	5	13	21	41	23
9	FK Siauliai	25	3	7	15	23	53	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Banga Gargzdai	Panevezys
Hegelmann Litauen	1-1 D	1-1 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	3-2 W	0-3 L
Suduva Marijampole	0-3 L	0-2 L
FK Siauliai	3-1 W	0-1 L
FK Dziugas Telsiai	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Transinvest	3-1 W	2-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Banga Gargzdai (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Banga Gargzdai

DWWWWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
16/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-2	4	5	W
09/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
03/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-1	4	8	W
19/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
12/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	3	6	W
28/06	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	0	2	W
17/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
13/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	1	D

Panevezys

LLWLDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
10/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
03/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
11/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
04/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
29/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
20/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
16/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
12/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Banga Gargzdai vs Panevezys?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Banga Gargzdai win (52%). Probabilities: Banga Gargzdai 52%, draw 26%, Panevezys 22%.

How many goals are expected in Banga Gargzdai vs Panevezys?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Banga Gargzdai 1.54 · Panevezys 0.9), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Banga Gargzdai vs Panevezys?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.