Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: FK Transinvest vs Suduva Marijampole

Team pages: FK Transinvest · Suduva Marijampole

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

FK Transinvest0.97

Suduva Marijampole1.38

1X2

26% 28% 46%

FK Transinvest Draw Suduva Marijampole

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Transinvest 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWWLDW

Suduva Marijampole 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

FK Transinvest 1–4–1 Suduva Marijampole (6 last)

Suduva Marijampole0-0FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest1-1Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole2-0FK Transinvest
Suduva Marijampole0-0FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest2-2Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole0-1FK Transinvest

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Transinvest 1491 · Suduva Marijampole 1609

	FK Transinvest	Draw	Suduva Marijampole
Our model	25%	30%	45%
Market	27%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Suduva Marijampole (rating 1491 vs 1609).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Transinvest	Suduva Marijampole
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	3.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 12:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
X	3.25 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.22 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:20 +17’	2.88	3.25	2.20
13:11 +7’	2.70▼	3.25	2.35▲
10:35 +2’	4.00▲	3.50▲	1.75▼
12:31 +5’	3.40▼	3.40▼	1.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:44	2.80	3.18	2.46
10:37	3.34▲	3.23▲	2.13▼
12:34 +2’	3.28▼	3.19▼	2.18▲
14:42	3.33▲	3.20▲	2.15▼
17:35	3.22▼	3.16▼	2.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Transinvest 1–4–1 Suduva Marijampole

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/07/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Transinvest
06/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	1-1 HT 0-0	Suduva Marijampole
07/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Transinvest
06/10/24 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Transinvest
20/07/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	2-2 HT 0-1	Suduva Marijampole
24/05/24 Lithuania A Lyga	Suduva Marijampole	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Transinvest

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	24	12	9	3	35	18	45
2	FK Kauno Zalgiris	23	10	9	4	41	16	39
3	FK Transinvest	25	11	6	8	36	32	39
4	FK Dziugas Telsiai	26	10	8	8	36	33	38
5	Banga Gargzdai	26	10	8	8	29	25	38
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	24	11	4	9	37	29	37
7	Panevezys	26	8	5	13	26	41	29
8	Hegelmann Litauen	26	4	12	10	29	44	24
9	FK Siauliai	26	3	7	16	24	55	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Transinvest	Suduva Marijampole
FK Siauliai	3-0 W	2-1 W
Panevezys	0-2 L	2-0 W
Hegelmann Litauen	2-1 W	5-1 W
FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-0 W	2-0 W
Banga Gargzdai	1-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Suduva Marijampole (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Transinvest

LWDLLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
16/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
10/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
26/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-3	10	4	L
12/07	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	9	6	L
06/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
20/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	4	L

Suduva Marijampole

DWWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
23/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
17/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
09/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
20/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	3-0	5-1	4	2	W
06/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
29/06	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
21/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
16/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
13/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Transinvest vs Suduva Marijampole?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Suduva Marijampole win (46%). Probabilities: FK Transinvest 26%, draw 28%, Suduva Marijampole 46%.

How many goals are expected in FK Transinvest vs Suduva Marijampole?

The model expects 2.34 goals (FK Transinvest 0.97 · Suduva Marijampole 1.38), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Transinvest vs Suduva Marijampole?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.