Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 07/09, 17:45

Prediction: Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevezys

Team pages: Hegelmann Litauen · Panevezys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Hegelmann Litauen1.24

Panevezys1.29

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Hegelmann Litauen Draw Panevezys

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hegelmann Litauen 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLLLDD

Panevezys 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Hegelmann Litauen 3–2–1 Panevezys (6 last)

Panevezys1-1Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen3-2Panevezys
Panevezys1-1Hegelmann Litauen
Panevezys1-0Hegelmann Litauen
Panevezys0-1Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen3-1Panevezys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hegelmann Litauen 1456 · Panevezys 1493

	Hegelmann Litauen	Draw	Panevezys
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hegelmann Litauen: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hegelmann Litauen	Panevezys
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.40

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.66
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.38▼	Pinn 2.59 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:59 +4’	2.40	3.40	2.50
05:38 +17’	2.30▼	3.40	2.63▲
08:55 +1’	2.55▲	3.40	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:28 +1’	2.48	3.17	2.77
18:19 +3’	2.66▲	3.17	2.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hegelmann Litauen 3–2–1 Panevezys

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	1-1 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen
06/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	3-2 HT 2-1	Panevezys
07/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	1-1 HT 1-0	Hegelmann Litauen
28/09/25 Lithuania Cup	Panevezys	1-0 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen
21/09/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	0-1 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen
17/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	3-1 HT 3-1	Panevezys

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	24	12	9	3	35	18	45
2	FK Kauno Zalgiris	23	10	9	4	41	16	39
3	FK Transinvest	25	11	6	8	36	32	39
4	FK Dziugas Telsiai	26	10	8	8	36	33	38
5	Banga Gargzdai	26	10	8	8	29	25	38
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	24	11	4	9	37	29	37
7	Panevezys	26	8	5	13	26	41	29
8	Hegelmann Litauen	26	4	12	10	29	44	24
9	FK Siauliai	26	3	7	16	24	55	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hegelmann Litauen	Panevezys
FK Dziugas Telsiai	2-2 D	1-1 D
Banga Gargzdai	1-1 D	3-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris	0-2 L	0-3 L
FK Transinvest	1-2 L	2-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	2-3 L	2-0 W
FK Siauliai	2-0 W	0-1 L
Suduva Marijampole	1-5 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Panevezys (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hegelmann Litauen

DLDLWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
23/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
08/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-2	0	4	L
02/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
27/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-3	6	3	L
24/07	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-0	5	8	W
20/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-3	1-5	2	2	L
04/07	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
28/06	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
17/06	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	6	D

Panevezys

WLDLDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
30/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
23/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
10/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
03/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
11/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
04/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
29/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
20/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevezys?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Panevezys win (37%). Probabilities: Hegelmann Litauen 35%, draw 28%, Panevezys 37%.

How many goals are expected in Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevezys?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Hegelmann Litauen 1.24 · Panevezys 1.29), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevezys?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.