Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 19/10, 17:45
Prediction: Suduva Marijampole vs FK Kauno Zalgiris
Team pages: Suduva Marijampole · FK Kauno Zalgiris
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Suduva Marijampole0.97
FK Kauno Zalgiris1.6
1X2
Suduva Marijampole
Draw
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Suduva Marijampole
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
FK Kauno Zalgiris
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Suduva Marijampole
2–2–2
FK Kauno Zalgiris
(6 last)
- FK Kauno Zalgiris5-1Suduva Marijampole
- Suduva Marijampole2-1FK Kauno Zalgiris
- FK Kauno Zalgiris1-1Suduva Marijampole
- Suduva Marijampole0-4FK Kauno Zalgiris
- Suduva Marijampole1-0FK Kauno Zalgiris
- FK Kauno Zalgiris1-1Suduva Marijampole
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Suduva Marijampole 1529 · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1577
| Suduva Marijampole | Draw | FK Kauno Zalgiris | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Market | 22% | 27% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kauno Zalgiris (rating 1529 vs 1577).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Suduva Marijampole | FK Kauno Zalgiris | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 2.1 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.8 | 2.5 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Suduva Marijampole 2–2–2 FK Kauno Zalgiris
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 5-1 HT 2-0 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 23/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 2-1 HT 0-0 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 21/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Suduva Marijampole |
| 17/01/26 Europe Friendlies | Suduva Marijampole | 0-4 HT 0-2 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 27/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Suduva Marijampole | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 24/09/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Suduva Marijampole |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 56 | 20 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 39 | 29 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 34 | 47 |
| 4 | FK Transinvest | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 35 | 45 |
| 5 | Banga Gargzdai | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 28 | 41 |
| 6 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 40 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevezys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 43 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 31 | 48 | 26 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 58 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Suduva Marijampole | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
|---|---|---|
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 0-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| FK Transinvest | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Siauliai | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Panevezys | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 2-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Banga Gargzdai | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Suduva Marijampole
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/09 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
3-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
FK Kauno Zalgiris
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 16/09 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/09 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 16/08 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Suduva Marijampole vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Kauno Zalgiris win (51%). Probabilities: Suduva Marijampole 22%, draw 27%, FK Kauno Zalgiris 51%.
How many goals are expected in Suduva Marijampole vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Suduva Marijampole 0.97 · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1.6), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Suduva Marijampole vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.