Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 25/10, 13:15
Prediction: Banga Gargzdai vs FK Siauliai
Team pages: Banga Gargzdai · FK Siauliai
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Banga Gargzdai1.95
FK Siauliai0.75
1X2
Banga Gargzdai
Draw
FK Siauliai
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Banga Gargzdai
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
FK Siauliai
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Banga Gargzdai
4–2–0
FK Siauliai
(6 last)
- FK Siauliai1-3Banga Gargzdai
- Banga Gargzdai1-1FK Siauliai
- FK Siauliai0-0Banga Gargzdai
- FK Siauliai1-4Banga Gargzdai
- FK Siauliai1-3Banga Gargzdai
- Banga Gargzdai1-0FK Siauliai
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Banga Gargzdai 1491 · FK Siauliai 1374
| Banga Gargzdai | Draw | FK Siauliai | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 67% | 18% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Banga Gargzdai (rating 1491 vs 1374).
- H2H favours Banga Gargzdai: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Banga Gargzdai | FK Siauliai | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.1 | 1.9 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Banga Gargzdai 4–2–0 FK Siauliai
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Siauliai | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Banga Gargzdai |
| 30/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Banga Gargzdai | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Siauliai |
| 04/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Siauliai | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Banga Gargzdai |
| 23/01/26 Europe Friendlies | FK Siauliai | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Banga Gargzdai |
| 22/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Siauliai | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Banga Gargzdai |
| 04/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Banga Gargzdai | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Siauliai |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 57 | 20 | 54 |
| 2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 35 | 50 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 30 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 39 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | FK Transinvest | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 38 | 46 |
| 5 | Banga Gargzdai | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 30 | 41 |
| 6 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 39 | 43 | 39 |
| 7 | Panevezys | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 44 | 35 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 30 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 32 | 52 | 26 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 58 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Banga Gargzdai | FK Siauliai |
|---|---|---|
| Panevezys | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 2-0 W | 3-4 L |
| FK Transinvest | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Suduva Marijampole | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Banga Gargzdai (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Banga Gargzdai
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 03/09 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 23/08 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/08 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 19/07 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
FK Siauliai
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 24/08 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/08 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-3 | 3-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 24/07 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Banga Gargzdai vs FK Siauliai?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Banga Gargzdai win (66%). Probabilities: Banga Gargzdai 66%, draw 20%, FK Siauliai 14%.
How many goals are expected in Banga Gargzdai vs FK Siauliai?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Banga Gargzdai 1.95 · FK Siauliai 0.75), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Banga Gargzdai vs FK Siauliai?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.