Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 24/10, 16:30

Prediction: FK Transinvest vs Hegelmann Litauen

Team pages: FK Transinvest · Hegelmann Litauen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

FK Transinvest2.29

Hegelmann Litauen0.85

1X2

69% 19% 12%

FK Transinvest Draw Hegelmann Litauen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Transinvest 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLWWD

Hegelmann Litauen 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDLDDL

Head-to-head

FK Transinvest 3–3 Hegelmann Litauen (6 last)

Hegelmann Litauen1-2FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest2-1Hegelmann Litauen
FK Transinvest2-0Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen3-1FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest0-1Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen4-1FK Transinvest

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Transinvest 1536 · Hegelmann Litauen 1442

	FK Transinvest	Draw	Hegelmann Litauen
Our model	69%	19%	11%
Market	70%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Transinvest (rating 1536 vs 1442).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Transinvest	Hegelmann Litauen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.2	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.30▲	Pinn 1.33
X	5.50 → 5.00▼	Pinn 5.16 ★
2	9.00 → 7.50▼	Pinn 7.62

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +15’	1.25	5.50	9.00
20:43 +3’	1.30▲	5.00▼	7.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:24 +48’	1.45	4.51	6.00
10:59 +16’	1.38▼	4.76▲	6.87▲
12:36 +40’	1.32▼	5.20▲	7.67▲
02:10 +6’	1.33▲	5.16▼	7.62▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Transinvest 3–0–3 Hegelmann Litauen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Transinvest
29/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	2-1 HT 2-0	Hegelmann Litauen
20/05/26 Lithuania Cup	FK Transinvest	2-0 HT 0-0	Hegelmann Litauen
04/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Transinvest
27/05/25 Lithuania Cup	FK Transinvest	0-1 HT 0-1	Hegelmann Litauen
06/11/24 Lithuania A Lyga	Hegelmann Litauen	4-1 HT 2-0	FK Transinvest

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	29	15	9	5	57	20	54
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30	15	5	10	49	35	50
3	Suduva Marijampole	30	13	11	6	39	30	50
4	FK Transinvest	29	13	7	9	46	38	46
5	Banga Gargzdai	29	11	8	10	33	30	41
6	FK Dziugas Telsiai	29	10	9	10	39	43	39
7	Panevezys	29	10	5	14	31	44	35
8	Hegelmann Litauen	30	4	14	12	32	52	26
9	FK Siauliai	29	3	8	18	24	58	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Transinvest	Hegelmann Litauen
FK Dziugas Telsiai	3-3 D	2-2 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	3-0 W	1-4 L
Banga Gargzdai	3-1 W	1-1 D
Suduva Marijampole	1-2 L	1-1 D
FK Siauliai	3-0 W	0-0 D
FK Kauno Zalgiris	1-1 D	0-2 L
Panevezys	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Transinvest (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Transinvest

LWWLDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
14/09	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-1	2	6	W
06/09	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
24/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
16/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
10/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
26/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-3	10	3	L

Hegelmann Litauen

WLLLDDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-4	5	7	L
20/09	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
13/09	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
07/09	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-3	1	0	L
31/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
23/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
08/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-2	0	4	L
02/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
27/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	2-3	6	3	L
24/07	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Transinvest vs Hegelmann Litauen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Transinvest win (69%). Probabilities: FK Transinvest 69%, draw 19%, Hegelmann Litauen 12%.

How many goals are expected in FK Transinvest vs Hegelmann Litauen?

The model expects 3.14 goals (FK Transinvest 2.29 · Hegelmann Litauen 0.85), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Transinvest vs Hegelmann Litauen?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.