Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 26/10, 17:45
Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Team pages: FK Kauno Zalgiris · FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
FK Kauno Zalgiris1.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.08
1X2
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Draw
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Kauno Zalgiris
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Kauno Zalgiris
2–1–3
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
(6 last)
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-2FK Kauno Zalgiris
- FK Kauno Zalgiris0-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius0-3FK Kauno Zalgiris
- FK Kauno Zalgiris1-2FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-2FK Kauno Zalgiris
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius2-2FK Kauno Zalgiris
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1567 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1536
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | Draw | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.5 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.5 | 3 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris 2–1–3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 3-2 HT 2-2 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 31/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
| 05/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 0-3 HT 0-1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 22/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 1-2 HT 0-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
| 04/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-2 HT 0-1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
| 20/05/25 Lithuania Cup | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2-2 HT 0-0 | FK Kauno Zalgiris |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 57 | 20 | 54 |
| 2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 35 | 50 |
| 3 | Suduva Marijampole | 30 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 39 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | FK Transinvest | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 38 | 46 |
| 5 | Banga Gargzdai | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 30 | 41 |
| 6 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 39 | 43 | 39 |
| 7 | Panevezys | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 44 | 35 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 30 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 32 | 52 | 26 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 58 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Kauno Zalgiris | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| FK Siauliai | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Panevezys | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 5-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Banga Gargzdai | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| FK Transinvest | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kauno Zalgiris
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 16/09 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/09 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 16/08 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 27/07 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kauno Zalgiris win (52%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris 52%, draw 25%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 23%.
How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
The model expects 2.83 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris 1.75 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.