Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 18/10, 16:00
Prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen
Team pages: FK Zalgiris Vilnius · Hegelmann Litauen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
FK Zalgiris Vilnius2.2
Hegelmann Litauen0.95
1X2
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Draw
Hegelmann Litauen
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Hegelmann Litauen
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
3–2–1
Hegelmann Litauen
(6 last)
- Hegelmann Litauen2-3FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-3Hegelmann Litauen
- Hegelmann Litauen0-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-0Hegelmann Litauen
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius3-1Hegelmann Litauen
- Hegelmann Litauen2-2FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1516 · Hegelmann Litauen 1450
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Draw | Hegelmann Litauen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius (rating 1516 vs 1450).
- H2H favours FK Zalgiris Vilnius: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Hegelmann Litauen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.8 | 2.2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–2–1 Hegelmann Litauen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-3 HT 1-1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
| 24/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 22/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
| 08/02/26 Europe Friendlies | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 02/11/25 Lithuania A Lyga | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Hegelmann Litauen |
| 24/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-2 HT 2-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
Standings · Lithuania A Lyga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Kauno Zalgiris | 28 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 56 | 20 | 51 |
| 2 | Suduva Marijampole | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 39 | 29 | 50 |
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 34 | 47 |
| 4 | FK Transinvest | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 35 | 45 |
| 5 | Banga Gargzdai | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 28 | 41 |
| 6 | FK Dziugas Telsiai | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 40 | 38 |
| 7 | Panevezys | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 43 | 32 |
| 8 | Hegelmann Litauen | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 31 | 48 | 26 |
| 9 | FK Siauliai | 29 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 58 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Hegelmann Litauen |
|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Transinvest | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| FK Kauno Zalgiris | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Siauliai | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Panevezys | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| FK Dziugas Telsiai | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Banga Gargzdai | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 4 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 27/07 | Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Hegelmann Litauen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 07/09 | Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 31/08 | FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 08/08 | FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 27/07 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/07 | FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 20/07 | Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga |
0-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Zalgiris Vilnius win (65%). Probabilities: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 65%, draw 20%, Hegelmann Litauen 15%.
How many goals are expected in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?
The model expects 3.15 goals (FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2.2 · Hegelmann Litauen 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.