Football · Scotland League Cup · 21/07, 20:45
Prediction: Arbroath vs Montrose
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Arbroath1.9
Montrose1.05
1X2
Arbroath
Draw
Montrose
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Arbroath
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Montrose
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arbroath
4–2–0
Montrose
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arbroath 1476 · Montrose 1504
| Arbroath | Draw | Montrose | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Arbroath: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arbroath | Montrose | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5 | 2.9 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arbroath 4–2–0 Montrose
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/25 Scotland League One | Montrose | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Arbroath |
| 28/12/24 Scotland League One | Arbroath | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Montrose |
| 09/11/24 Scotland League One | Montrose | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Arbroath |
| 07/09/24 Scotland League Challenge Cup | Arbroath | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Montrose |
| 10/08/24 Scotland League One | Arbroath | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Montrose |
| 29/07/23 Scotland League Cup | Arbroath | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Montrose |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dundee Utd | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Montrose | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Stirling | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Arbroath | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Spartans | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arbroath
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Dundee Utd Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | Spartans Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Brechin Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | St Mirren UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 05/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Partick Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Raith Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Montrose
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Stirling Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/07 | Dundee Utd Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 08/07 | Inverurie Loco Works Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | St Johnstone Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/07 | Civil Service Strollers UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Forfar UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Hamilton Scotland League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arbroath vs Montrose?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arbroath win (56%). Probabilities: Arbroath 56%, draw 24%, Montrose 20%.
How many goals are expected in Arbroath vs Montrose?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Arbroath 1.9 · Montrose 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Arbroath vs Montrose?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.