Prediction: St Mirren vs Dunfermline
| St Mirren | Draw | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Mirren (rating 1567 vs 1520).
- H2H favours St Mirren: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Mirren | Dunfermline | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.3 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Mirren 5–0–1 Dunfermline
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/24 Club Friendly List | Dunfermline | 0-1 HT 0-1 | St Mirren |
| 13/07/21 Scotland League Cup | St Mirren | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Dunfermline |
| 14/07/19 Scotland League Cup | St Mirren | 2-3 HT 0-3 | Dunfermline |
| 10/03/18 Scotland Championship | St Mirren | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Dunfermline |
| 26/01/18 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 1-2 HT 0-1 | St Mirren |
| 16/12/17 Scotland Championship | St Mirren | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Dunfermline |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Mirren | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Dunfermline | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 6 |
| 4 | Cove Rangers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
| 5 | Dumbarton | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Mirren | Dunfermline |
|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride | 4-3 W | 0-3 L |
| Cove Rangers | 4-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Dumbarton | 4-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Arbroath | 4-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Partick | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: St Mirren (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Mirren
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | East Kilbride Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 4-3 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 18/07 | Cove Rangers Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Dumbarton Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Arbroath UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 12/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
Dunfermline
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Cove Rangers Scotland League Cup |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 14/07 | Dumbarton Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | East Kilbride Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Kelty Hearts UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Clyde UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 25/06 | FC Botosani Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Celtic Scotland FA Cup |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 08/05 | Arbroath Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Mirren vs Dunfermline?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St Mirren win (45%). Probabilities: St Mirren 45%, draw 26%, Dunfermline 29%.
How many goals are expected in St Mirren vs Dunfermline?
The model expects 3.15 goals (St Mirren 1.76 · Dunfermline 1.39), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Dunfermline?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.