Prediction: Ayr vs Alloa
| Ayr | Draw | Alloa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ayr (rating 1553 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Ayr: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ayr | Alloa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/44/22% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ayr 5–1–0 Alloa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/23 Scotland League Cup | Ayr | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Alloa |
| 27/03/21 Scotland Championship | Alloa | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Ayr |
| 30/01/21 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Alloa |
| 05/12/20 Scotland Championship | Alloa | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ayr |
| 29/02/20 Scotland Championship | Alloa | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ayr |
| 14/12/19 Scotland Championship | Ayr | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Alloa |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group G
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ayr | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | FC Edinburgh | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Falkirk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| 4 | Alloa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 |
| 5 | Stranraer | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ayr | Alloa |
|---|---|---|
| FC Edinburgh | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Falkirk | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Stranraer | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Airdrieonians | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Ayr (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ayr
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/07 | Falkirk Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | Stranraer Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | Airdrieonians UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Dumbarton UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Glenafton Athletic FC Club Friendly List |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | St Johnstone Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Ross County Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Alloa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Falkirk Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 18/07 | Stranraer Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 14/07 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/06 | Livingston UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 13/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Airdrieonians Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Queen of South Scotland League One |
1-1 | 1-4 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Stenhousemuir Scotland League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ayr vs Alloa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ayr win (55%). Probabilities: Ayr 55%, draw 24%, Alloa 21%.
How many goals are expected in Ayr vs Alloa?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Ayr 1.9 · Alloa 1.09), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ayr vs Alloa?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.