Prediction: Dunfermline vs Dumbarton
| Dunfermline | Draw | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | 69% | 18% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dunfermline (rating 1523 vs 1417).
- H2H favours Dunfermline: 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dunfermline | Dumbarton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 1 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 2.4 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunfermline 5–1–0 Dumbarton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/25 Scotland League Cup | Dumbarton | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Dunfermline |
| 17/07/21 Scotland League Cup | Dunfermline | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Dumbarton |
| 06/10/20 Scotland League Cup | Dumbarton | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Dunfermline |
| 28/04/18 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Dumbarton |
| 06/01/18 Scotland Championship | Dumbarton | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Dunfermline |
| 25/11/17 Scotland Championship | Dunfermline | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Dumbarton |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Mirren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | East Kilbride | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Cove Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Dunfermline | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5 | Dumbarton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dunfermline | Dumbarton |
|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Clyde | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dunfermline
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | East Kilbride Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Kelty Hearts UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Clyde UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 25/06 | FC Botosani Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Celtic Scotland FA Cup |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Partick Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 08/05 | Arbroath Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 05/05 | Arbroath Scotland Premiership Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/05 | Arbroath Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
Dumbarton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | St Mirren Scotland League Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | Ayr UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Linlithgow Rose Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | East Kilbride Scotland League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Clyde Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Stirling Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Stranraer Scotland League Two |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | Forfar Scotland League Two |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dunfermline vs Dumbarton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dunfermline win (69%). Probabilities: Dunfermline 69%, draw 18%, Dumbarton 13%.
How many goals are expected in Dunfermline vs Dumbarton?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Dunfermline 2.4 · Dumbarton 0.95), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Dunfermline vs Dumbarton?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.