Football · Scotland League Cup · 21/07, 20:45
Prediction: Ross County vs Dundee
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.4Total
Ross County1.52
Dundee1.88
1X2
Ross County
Draw
Dundee
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ross County
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Dundee
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ross County
3–1–2
Dundee
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ross County 1585 · Dundee 1507
| Ross County | Draw | Dundee | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ross County (rating 1585 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Ross County: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ross County | Dundee | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1 | 2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 67/11/22% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.9 | 3.5 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ross County 3–1–2 Dundee
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/25 Scotland Premiership | Dundee | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ross County |
| 22/02/25 Scotland Premiership | Ross County | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Dundee |
| 26/12/24 Scotland Premiership | Dundee | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Ross County |
| 14/09/24 Scotland Premiership | Ross County | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Dundee |
| 17/02/24 Scotland Premiership | Dundee | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ross County |
| 16/12/23 Scotland Premiership | Ross County | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Dundee |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group D
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dundee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Ross County | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Airdrieonians | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Clyde | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Annan Athletic | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ross County
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Clyde Scotland League Cup |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/07 | Nairn County UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 11/07 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Inverness CT UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/06 | Clachnacuddin UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Forres Mechanics Club Friendly List |
– | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | Raith Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Morton Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/04 | Queen's Park Scotland Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
Dundee
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Everton Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Airdrieonians Scotland League Cup |
1-2 | 4-2 | 16 | 2 | W |
| 08/07 | Brechin Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Maccabi Haifa Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/07 | Paksi Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Livingston UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 12/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ross County vs Dundee?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Dundee win (45%). Probabilities: Ross County 30%, draw 25%, Dundee 45%.
How many goals are expected in Ross County vs Dundee?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Ross County 1.52 · Dundee 1.88), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ross County vs Dundee?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.