Football · Scotland League Cup · 21/07, 20:45
Prediction: Livingston vs Forfar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Livingston2.68
Forfar0.68
1X2
Livingston
Draw
Forfar
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Livingston
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Forfar
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Livingston
2–1–0
Forfar
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Livingston 1543 · Forfar 1439
| Livingston | Draw | Forfar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 86% | 8% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Livingston (rating 1543 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Livingston: 2-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Livingston | Forfar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 11/44/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.3 | 1.1 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Livingston 2–1–0 Forfar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/24 Scotland League Cup | Forfar | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Livingston |
| 17/08/19 Scotland League Cup | Forfar | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Livingston |
| 10/07/14 Club Friendly List | Forfar | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Livingston |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group E
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 8 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Livingston | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Forfar | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 5 | Brechin | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Livingston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Partick Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 14/07 | Brechin Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 10/07 | Hearts UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Alloa UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 27/06 | Dundee UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
1-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Forfar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Partick Scotland League Cup |
0-3 | 0-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Stenhousemuir Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 07/07 | Peterhead Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Banks O'Dee Club Friendly List |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 30/06 | St Johnstone UK Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Montrose UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 09/05 | Hamilton Scotland League One Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | Hamilton Scotland League One Play-Offs |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Annan Athletic Scotland League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Livingston vs Forfar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Livingston win (83%). Probabilities: Livingston 83%, draw 11%, Forfar 6%.
How many goals are expected in Livingston vs Forfar?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Livingston 2.68 · Forfar 0.68), with a 60% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Livingston vs Forfar?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.