Football · Scotland League Cup · 22/07, 20:45
Prediction: Queen of South vs Aberdeen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.97Total
Queen of South0.79
Aberdeen2.18
1X2
Queen of South
Draw
Aberdeen
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Queen of South
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Aberdeen
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Queen of South
0–2
Aberdeen
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Queen of South 1511 · Aberdeen 1537
| Queen of South | Draw | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 20% | 68% |
| Market | 14% | 15% | 71% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Aberdeen: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Queen of South | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 80/0/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 2.4 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Queen of South 0–0–2 Aberdeen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/24 Scotland League Cup | Queen of South | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Aberdeen |
| 10/02/19 Scotland FA Cup | Aberdeen | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Queen of South |
Standings · Scotland League Cup · League Cup 26/27, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queen's Park | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Aberdeen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Queen of South | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Kelty Hearts | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| 5 | Brora Rangers FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Queen of South
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 04/07 | Crusaders UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | Connah's Quay UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 05/05 | Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship Play-Offs |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Alloa Scotland League One |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Montrose Scotland League One |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Peterhead Scotland League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | Cove Rangers Scotland League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Aberdeen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Queen's Park Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 14/07 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Linfield UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Twente Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 12/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 01/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Queen of South vs Aberdeen?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Aberdeen win (70%). Probabilities: Queen of South 13%, draw 18%, Aberdeen 70%.
How many goals are expected in Queen of South vs Aberdeen?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Queen of South 0.79 · Aberdeen 2.18), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Queen of South vs Aberdeen?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.